Through September 30, 2026, the strongest returns in Madison Partners’ comparison came from commodities and emerging-market stocks, while its gold and bond proxies were weaker. US stocks also posted positive year-to-date returns, although two sources report different S&P 500 figures. These are source-specific snapshots—not a single, fully comparable ranking of seven asset classes.
What counts as a “winner” in this comparison?
The available figures do not form one consistent seven-class leaderboard: the sources use overlapping benchmarks and report different S&P 500 returns. To avoid mixing unlike measures, the table below uses Madison Partners’ September update for its broad cross-asset comparison. All figures are reported year-to-date through September 30, 2026, and are tied to the index or fund proxy shown—not to every investment in that asset class.
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| Exposure and proxy | 2026 YTD return | What the proxy represents |
|---|---|---|
| Commodities — Bloomberg Commodity (BCI) | +32.46% | Diversified commodity benchmark proxy. |
| International emerging stocks — MSCI Emerging Markets | +23.7% | Emerging-market equities. |
| US small-cap stocks — Russell 2000 | +13.7% | US smaller-company equities. |
| International developed stocks — MSCI EAFE | +10.8% | Developed markets outside the US and Canada. |
| US real estate — VNQ / FTSE Nareit | +7.9% | Listed US REIT exposure. |
| Gold — SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | -3.9% | Gold fund proxy, not the spot price of gold. |
| US aggregate bonds — Bloomberg US Aggregate | -2.9% | Broad US investment-grade bond-market proxy. |
Madison Partners also reported -4.63% for the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF), -1.17% for the currency-hedged Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX), and +0.0% for high-yield bonds, using an ICE BofA / Bloomberg US High Yield proxy. These are additional bond comparisons, not extra entries in a seven-category ranking. Madison Partners’ September 2026 update provides the figures and proxy labels.
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Which asset classes led, and what was surprising?
Commodities and emerging markets topped Madison Partners’ comparison
The Bloomberg Commodity proxy returned +32.46% — Madison Partners, 2026 — through September 30. MSCI Emerging Markets returned +23.7% — Madison Partners, 2026 — over the same reported window. Those results put both well ahead of the other entries in that table. They do not establish that every commodity or every emerging-market country performed similarly.
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Positive stock returns were not uniform
In the Madison Partners table, US small caps gained +13.7%, developed international stocks gained +10.8%, and the S&P 500 gained +12.8%. A separate chart from CIBC Private Wealth US reports +15.5% for the Russell 2000 and +14.1% for the S&P 500 through September 30, labeling its returns total returns. The S&P 500 difference—+12.8% at Madison Partners versus +14.1% at CIBC—should not be silently averaged or treated as resolved; the sources do not establish a common calculation convention for the two figures.
Gold lagged even as the commodity proxy surged
Madison Partners’ GLD proxy was down 3.9% through September 30, while its Bloomberg Commodity proxy was up 32.46%. This contrast is a useful reminder that gold is only one commodity exposure, and that a diversified commodity benchmark can behave very differently from a gold fund. The figures are for those specific proxies, not a claim about spot gold’s exact return.
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Bond proxies were mostly negative
Madison Partners reported -2.9% for the Bloomberg US Aggregate, -4.63% for IEF, and -1.17% for currency-hedged BNDX; its high-yield proxy was flat at +0.0%. CIBC’s separate chart shows -2.8% for the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond benchmark and -3.6% for Bloomberg Intermediate Municipal bonds. The differences between sources and bond segments matter: “bonds” do not have one return.
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Both market commentary and the return figures point to an environment in which equity earnings, inflation, interest rates, and commodity-specific shocks pulled asset classes in different directions. LSEG / FTSE Russell summarized the period this way: “Resilient earnings supported equities through renewed energy disruption, while inflation, fiscal concerns and tighter monetary policy pushed yields to cycle highs.” Its October 7 overview also highlighted energy as the leading commodity area and noted that government yields reached new highs. LSEG’s October 2026 performance overview provides that context.
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CIBC Private Wealth US attributed rising yields to inflation and deficit concerns, reporting that the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 0.75 percentage point in the third quarter to levels not seen in nearly 20 years. It linked higher yields to negative fixed-income returns during the quarter. Madison Partners likewise said September’s rise in rates pushed broad investment-grade bonds down about 2.7% and intermediate Treasuries down more than 3% in its September snapshot; it attributed commodities’ modest monthly gain to higher oil and gold’s decline to rising real yields. These are the publishers’ explanations and measurements, not universal rules about how each asset class must respond.
How to read the return figures without overclaiming
- Use the stated cutoff. These comparisons are year-to-date through September 30, 2026; they are not full-year results or figures through October 9.
- Keep each benchmark attached to its return. An index, ETF, and spot price are different measures. For example, GLD is a fund proxy, while MSCI Emerging Markets is an equity index.
- Check return conventions. CIBC labels its chart figures total returns. The Madison Partners table is presented as YTD returns, but the evidence here does not establish matching conventions for every figure. Do not assume the sources are directly interchangeable.
- Notice currency treatment. Madison Partners explicitly says its international bond proxy is currency hedged. Do not generalize that treatment to the international stock figures.
- Do not infer risk from return alone. The cited comparisons do not provide one common volatility or drawdown series for all the proxies, so they cannot show which was the least risky path.
Index history also has limits: S&P Dow Jones Indices cautions that past performance does not indicate or guarantee future results, and that pre-launch index history may be hypothetical back-tested performance, with actual returns potentially differing significantly and being lower. S&P Dow Jones Indices’ S&P Real Assets page explains those caveats.
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Sources and measurement notes
The cross-asset table and additional Madison Partners figures are from its September 2026 market update, which reports performance through September 30. The separate total-return comparisons and third-quarter commentary are from CIBC Private Wealth US’s “Third-quarter market returns: stocks outperform bonds”. Broader market context comes from LSEG / FTSE Russell’s October 2026 performance overview. Figures above are publisher-reported and have not been recomputed into a common portfolio return.
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