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Could a Construction Rebound Change the Case for Colliers (TSX:CIGI)?

A construction recovery could support Colliers’ Engineering platform, but reported growth includes acquisition contributions and does not establish either construction sensitivity or an attractive share valuation.
From TheFinanceBase Team5 min to read
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A construction recovery could benefit Colliers International Group through its Engineering platform, which works on buildings, infrastructure and related projects. But that is a potential tailwind, not proof that earnings will rise because of construction—or that CIGI shares are attractively valued. Colliers operates across three platforms, and its 2025 Engineering growth included contributions from acquisitions as well as internal growth.

How a construction rebound could affect Colliers

“Construction rebound” can refer to several different developments: more building permits or starts, higher project-award volumes, or stronger demand for engineering and project-management services. Those indicators do not translate automatically into Colliers revenue. A project must generate work that fits the company’s services, and the timing of awards, staffing and revenue recognition can differ.

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Colliers’ Engineering platform provides services across property and buildings, infrastructure and transportation, water, and environmental work. That creates potential exposure to both private development and infrastructure projects. The company’s public materials describe these service areas, but do not quantify how a change in construction starts, awards, backlog or utilization would affect its revenue or earnings. The construction link is therefore a thesis to test, not a demonstrated earnings sensitivity.

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The platform mix also matters. Colliers reports three businesses: Commercial Real Estate, Engineering and Investment Management. Its Commercial Real Estate activities include advisory, leasing, capital markets and outsourcing; Investment Management is another source of business beyond engineering projects. This breadth can reduce reliance on a single project cycle, but it does not remove cyclicality: commercial real estate transaction activity can also fluctuate.

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What Colliers reported—and what the growth figures mean

For the year ended December 31, 2025, Colliers reported revenue of $5.56 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $732.5 million and adjusted EPS of $6.58. All dollar amounts below are US dollars. The company reported 2025 revenue growth of 15% and adjusted EPS growth of 14%.

2025 measure Reported result Comparison or context
Revenue $5.56 billion $4.82 billion in 2024; up 15%
Adjusted EBITDA $732.5 million $644.2 million in 2024
Adjusted EPS $6.58 $5.75 in 2024; up 14%
GAAP diluted EPS $2.02 $3.22 in 2024

These are Colliers International Group Inc.’s reported fiscal 2025 results, released February 13, 2026. Adjusted and GAAP earnings tell different stories: GAAP diluted EPS fell even as adjusted EPS increased. The company said prior-year GAAP operating earnings benefited from a reversal of contingent consideration expense related to an acquisition. Investors should not treat adjusted EPS as interchangeable with GAAP EPS.

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Engineering grew faster, but not solely because of construction

In 2025, Commercial Real Estate revenue was $3.29 billion, up 7%, while Engineering revenue was $1.73 billion, up 40%. Colliers attributed Engineering’s increase to recent acquisitions and solid internal growth. The 40% figure is therefore neither a pure organic-growth measure nor evidence that a broad construction recovery caused the increase.

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To assess whether a future construction upturn is strengthening the business, separate acquired growth from organic growth and look for company disclosures that connect demand to project awards, backlog, utilization, service mix or margins. Without that detail, segment growth alone cannot establish how much benefit came from the construction cycle.

Management’s 2026 outlook is a forecast, not a result

In its February 13, 2026 full-year release, management forecast mid-teens growth in consolidated revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS for 2026. That outlook included the expected contribution of the Ayesa Engineering acquisition. It was forward-looking guidance, not a reported outcome, and was subject to macroeconomic, geopolitical, international-trade and other conditions. Colliers’ May 5, 2026 Q1 release said the outlook remained unchanged at that time.

The forecast may help frame expectations, but it does not isolate construction-driven growth. It also depends on acquisition assumptions and external conditions. Compare later reported results with the dated forecast, while checking whether the company has changed its outlook or explained the contribution from acquisitions and internal growth.

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Cash generation and the wider business mix

In its July 30, 2026 Q2 release, Colliers reported trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $365.6 million, equal to 106% of adjusted net earnings. It also reported $109.9 billion in assets under management as of June 30, 2026. These are company-reported measures for their stated periods; one trailing-twelve-month cash-flow figure does not guarantee future cash generation, and assets under management are not the same as Colliers’ own assets or revenue.

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For an investment thesis, cash conversion is useful alongside earnings growth: it helps show whether reported profits are accompanied by cash generation. The AUM figure provides scale for the Investment Management platform, but it does not by itself indicate how profitable that platform is or how sensitive it is to markets. Consider these measures alongside the contribution and cyclicality of each platform rather than treating them as direct evidence of a construction-related payoff.

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What would make the construction thesis stronger or weaker?

A more convincing case would require evidence that construction-related demand is translating into durable, profitable, internally generated growth—not just a high reported segment growth rate. Useful items to examine in future company disclosures include:

  • Organic versus acquired Engineering growth: Check whether internal growth persists after separating acquisition contributions.
  • Demand and project indicators: Look for disclosures on awards, backlog, project mix, utilization or other measures that connect customer demand to work in hand. The figures cited here do not establish Colliers’ construction sensitivity.
  • Buildings versus infrastructure: Consider whether growth is broad across private building work and infrastructure, transportation, water or environmental services, rather than assuming all construction cycles move together.
  • Margins and cash conversion: Test whether revenue growth supports adjusted profitability and cash generation, not just a larger revenue base.
  • Acquisition integration and financing: Assess how acquired businesses contribute, how integration progresses and how acquisition funding affects the company’s financial position.
  • Commercial Real Estate conditions: Track transaction-sensitive activities such as leasing and capital markets, which may strengthen or weaken independently of engineering demand.
  • Valuation against normalized results: Compare the share price and debt-adjusted valuation with sustainable earnings, cash flows and relevant peers. The results and operating measures summarized here do not establish a current valuation multiple or peer comparison.

Does a rebound change the case for investing in CIGI?

It could improve the operating outlook for Engineering if stronger construction activity results in more relevant project work and that work converts into profitable, cash-generative growth. Colliers’ diversified platforms mean the investment case does not rest on construction alone, while the company’s 2025 acquisition contribution makes the headline Engineering growth rate an imperfect gauge of a construction cycle.

The available figures establish recent company performance and management’s dated outlook; they do not show that a construction recovery caused the growth, quantify future sensitivity, or demonstrate that the shares are cheap. A sound assessment therefore needs both operating evidence and a valuation based on normalized earnings or cash flows. Growth by itself is not a buy signal.

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