The headline described a sharp, dated break in U.S. soybean shipments to China—not a permanent end to Chinese buying. Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture reported that U.S. shipments to China were effectively zero in June, July and August 2025, while Brazil sent a record volume. By September 24, 2026, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service had listed a U.S. sale of 120,000 metric tons for delivery to China in marketing year 2026/27. That announcement confirms a reported sale, but it does not establish how much has shipped or provide a complete current trade total.
What the 2025 headline measured
In an article published September 22, 2025, Purdue researchers described a sudden slowdown in U.S. soybean shipments to China during the summer. From January through August 2025, U.S. shipments to China totaled 218 million bushels, or 29% of all U.S. soybean exports during that period. The shipments were effectively zero in June, July and August.
That was a change from the preceding year: U.S. shipments to China were nearly 985 million bushels in calendar year 2024, equal to 51% of total U.S. soybean exports that year. The figures refer to shipments over specified calendar periods. They do not mean that China had stopped buying U.S. soybeans for all time, or that sales announcements and completed deliveries are interchangeable.
How Brazil’s exports compared
While U.S. shipments to China weakened, Brazil’s flows to the same destination were exceptionally large. The Purdue article, citing Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), reported that Brazil exported 2.474 billion bushels of soybeans to China from January through August 2025—76% of Brazil’s soybean exports over those eight months. In August alone, Brazil shipped 290 million bushels to China, a monthly record that represented 85% of Brazil’s soybean exports that month.
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| Country and period | Measure | Reported volume | China’s share or destination detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States, January–August 2025 | Soybean shipments to China, reported by Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture | 218 million bushels | 29% of U.S. soybean exports in that period |
| Brazil, January–August 2025 | Soybean exports to China, Purdue citing Secex | 2.474 billion bushels | 76% of Brazil’s soybean exports in that period |
| Brazil, August 2025 | Soybean exports to China, Purdue citing Secex | 290 million bushels | 85% of Brazil’s soybean exports that month; a monthly record |
| Brazil, calendar year 2025 | Total soybean exports, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service citing Comex Stat/MDIC | 108.2 million metric tons | 79% went to China, according to USDA AMS |
| Brazil, calendar year 2025 | Soybean exports to China, USDA AMS | 85.4 million metric tons | Up 18% from 72.5 million metric tons in 2024 |
The first three rows use the bushel figures reported in Purdue’s 2025 analysis; the final two use USDA AMS’s February 2026 report in metric tons. The source systems and periods differ, so these figures should not be combined as if they were one continuous series. In particular, the metric-ton figures are full-calendar-year 2025 exports, whereas the bushel comparisons above cover January–August or a single month.
What changed in U.S.–China trade by October 2026
USDA FAS listed a private-exporter sale of 120,000 metric tons for delivery to China during marketing year 2026/27, announced September 24, 2026. A separate notice dated October 5 listed 104,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations; that notice does not identify China as the buyer’s destination. These are individual reported sales, not totals of all purchases, proof of delivery, or evidence of arrival at a Chinese port.
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The USDA FAS soybean commodity page lists selected private-exporter announcements. Its notices establish that a reported China sale existed by September 24, 2026, but they are not a complete measure of accumulated sales or completed shipments. USDA’s Economic Research Service says its monthly U.S. trade tables were last updated September 8, 2026, with the next update scheduled for October 9. Thus, the sources available as of October 8 do not establish a complete cumulative U.S.–China soybean trade total through that date.
Why the buying pattern shifted
Tariffs raised the cost of U.S. soybeans in China
Purdue’s September 2025 article attributed the drop in U.S. sales in part to tariff exposure. It characterized the combination of a 20% retaliatory tariff, China’s value-added tax and its most-favored-nation duties as bringing the overall duty rate on U.S. soybeans to 34% in 2025. That is the article’s description of the 2025 tariff context, not a verified current tariff rate for 2026.
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A tariff can make one origin less competitive on landed cost, but the evidence does not show that tariffs alone determined each purchase. Relative prices, crop availability, freight and timing also matter. The 2025 analysis supports a multi-factor explanation rather than a single-cause claim.
Brazil had more crop capacity to serve China
Brazil’s production expanded substantially over the period discussed by Purdue. Citing Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), the article put production at 4.5 billion bushels in crop year 2017/18 and 6.3 billion bushels in 2024/25. That larger production base helped make Brazil a major source for Chinese importers; it is a production comparison, not an export total.
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The longer-run destination shares also show a relative shift in the two countries’ export patterns. Purdue reported that China accounted for an average of 60% of U.S. soybean exports in 2011–2017 and 47% in 2018–2024. For Brazil, the corresponding average shares were 73% and 74%. For calendar year 2024, the article reported total soybean exports of 3.63 billion bushels for Brazil and 1.93 billion bushels for the United States, citing Secex and USDA. Those calendar-year totals cover all destinations, not China alone.
U.S. domestic demand was also growing
Purdue noted that U.S. soybean-crushing capacity and demand for soybean oil were growing, with renewable diesel among the drivers. Domestic processing can provide another outlet for U.S. beans when export demand changes, but that context does not by itself establish how much of the 2025 export decline was absorbed by U.S. crushers.
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What the shift meant for farmers and markets
In the 2025 harvest context, Purdue warned that reduced Chinese demand, falling prices and potentially limited on-farm grain storage could make marketing the crop more difficult. The article also pointed to a projected large corn harvest as a competing claim on storage and transport capacity. Basis pressure—the difference between a local cash price and the relevant futures price—was a risk in that setting, as were added storage needs and strain on producers and the transport chain. These were conditional concerns about the 2025 season, not a statement of current 2026 farm prices or conditions.
For commodity markets, a large buyer shifting purchases between origins can alter demand for each exporter’s crop and affect local marketing conditions. But trade volumes alone do not predict a particular price move: other buyers, domestic crush, crop size, logistics and broader market conditions also influence prices. Brazil’s 2025 results show the scale of its export channel, not that every tonne it sold replaced a U.S. sale one-for-one.
USDA AMS’s February 2026 overview adds that Brazil’s 2025 soybean export volume reached 108.2 million metric tons, 9.5% above 98.8 million metric tons in 2024, with 79% going to China. The report also describes record production and exports, higher transportation costs and strong Chinese demand. High volumes therefore do not mean logistics are costless or unconstrained.
How to read the country comparisons
- Check the period. Calendar-year exports, January-to-date shipments and marketing-year sales notices cover different time windows.
- Check what is being counted. Production, a sale announcement, an export shipment and a completed import are different measures.
- Check the destination denominator. A country’s total exports include all destinations; China’s share is not the same as its share of global production.
- Keep units and sources visible. Purdue’s comparisons include bushel figures drawn from different source systems, while USDA AMS reports Brazil’s full-year 2025 exports in metric tons. They should not be silently merged or treated as identical series.
The February 2026 Purdue and University of Illinois comparison of a typical farm in Iowa and one in Mato Grosso over 2020–2024 examines differences in costs and profitability. It provides farm-level context, not an October 2026 trade tally.
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