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Grain prices did not move together in 2025: the World Bank reported a 6% quarterly drop in its grain measure in 2025 Q3, led by a 10% fall in rice, while its full-year estimates put wheat down 7% and maize up 4%. Its April 2026 outlook projects grain prices to rise 2% in each of 2026 and 2027, mainly because wheat and maize are forecast to rise. Those are global forecasts, not a promise about local food prices or a particular futures contract.
What happened to grain prices in 2025?
There is no single 2025 change that describes every grain. The figures below use different time windows: a quarterly observation, full-year estimates and a later forecast. Treating them as one continuous price move would be misleading.
| Crop or measure | Reported 2025 movement | What the figure means |
|---|---|---|
| World Bank grain measure | Down 6% in 2025 Q3 | Quarter-over-quarter observation reported in the World Bank’s October 2025 review; not a full-year change. |
| Rice | Down 10% in 2025 Q3 | Quarter-over-quarter observation reported in the World Bank’s October 2025 review; the leading contributor to that quarter’s grain decline. |
| Wheat | Estimated down 7% in 2025 | World Bank annual estimate in its October 2025 outlook. |
| Maize (corn) | Estimated up 4% in 2025 | World Bank annual estimate in its October 2025 outlook. |
The different directions are the point: grain is an umbrella term, not one interchangeable price. Crops have distinct balances and benchmarks. For example, the World Bank’s October 2025 chart identified U.S. hard red winter wheat and Thai 5% rice benchmarks; those are not the same as a local farm cash bid, grocery price or futures contract.
Why an earlier forecast may not match the later estimate
In April 2025, the World Bank forecast that grain prices would fall 11% over the year. That was a forecast, not a final measurement. By October, the Bank’s annual estimates showed wheat down 7% and maize up 4%, alongside the separate Q3 decline in its grain measure. A forecast is a dated view based on information and assumptions available at publication; it should not be read as an observed result or carried forward as if it were current.
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What is the latest outlook for grain prices?
The latest cited global price forecast here is the World Bank’s April 2026 outlook. It projects grain prices to rise 2% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Wheat and maize are each forecast to rise 4% in 2026 and are the main drivers of the projected grain increase.
| Crop or measure | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast | Forecast source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain measure | Up 2% | Up 2% | World Bank, April 2026 outlook. |
| Wheat | Up 4% | Not stated in the cited April 2026 outlook. | World Bank, April 2026 outlook. |
| Maize (corn) | Up 4% | Not stated in the cited April 2026 outlook. | World Bank, April 2026 outlook. |
| Rice | Not stated in the cited April 2026 outlook. | Not stated in the cited April 2026 outlook. | World Bank, April 2026 outlook. |
| Soybeans | Not stated in the cited April 2026 outlook. | Not stated in the cited April 2026 outlook. | World Bank, April 2026 outlook. |
The October 2025 outlook had projected maize prices to edge down in 2026; the April 2026 forecast instead put maize up 4%. That revision is a practical reminder to check the date on a forecast rather than treating an older outlook as a current market reading.
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What the forecast assumes
The World Bank expected global wheat and maize production to edge down in the 2026–27 crop year, after supplies improved and stocks-to-use ratios rose in 2025–26. Its April 2026 report also projected its broader food-price index up 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027. The report said conflict was affecting food prices mainly through higher energy and fertilizer costs; its baseline assumed Middle East supply disruptions would ease by mid-2026. That was the report’s assumption at publication, not confirmation that disruptions eased or a guarantee that its price path will occur.
What do production forecasts say about supply?
FAO’s June 18, 2026 Food Outlook forecast lower cereal production, but its figures cover different periods. They are production forecasts, not confirmed harvest results.
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| Output measure | FAO forecast | Period and change |
|---|---|---|
| Global cereal output | 2,982 million tonnes | Calendar 2026; down 2.0%. |
| Wheat output | 810.9 million tonnes | 2026/27; down 3.8%. |
| Coarse-grain production | 1,619 million tonnes | 2026/27; down 1.2%. |
Calendar-year 2026 and the 2026/27 marketing year are not interchangeable. Nor does a lower output forecast by itself establish the size or timing of a price change: price forecasts also depend on demand, stocks, trade and other market conditions.
Why ample supply can still leave prices exposed
The World Bank’s October 2025 outlook expected record wheat and maize production in the 2025–26 crop year, yet also warned that declining stocks-to-use ratios could make prices more vulnerable to shocks. In that report’s estimates, wheat stocks were at a three-year high and its stocks-to-use ratio was stabilizing near 33%; rice was about 35%; and maize was 22%, its lowest ratio since 2013–14. These are estimates from the 2025 report, not live 2026 readings. A stocks-to-use ratio compares stocks with expected use: a falling ratio can leave less buffer against a supply shortfall, even when production is substantial.
What could change the outlook?
The 2026–27 price path is conditional. The reports identify several sources of uncertainty, and none should be treated as a single explanation for every crop’s price moves.
- Weather and yields: FAO cites weather developments and potential El Niño among uncertainties for crop prospects. Changes in expected yields can alter the supply balance.
- Stocks relative to use: The World Bank’s October 2025 analysis says declining ratios can increase sensitivity to adverse weather and trade restrictions.
- Trade policy and geopolitics: Policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions can affect market access, costs and risk assessments.
- Energy and fertilizer costs: FAO notes volatility in these markets. The World Bank says conflict-related pressure on food prices is transmitted mainly through higher energy and fertilizer costs.
- Crop-specific demand: An aggregate grain measure can conceal differences among food, feed and industrial uses. The cited outlooks do not establish one crop-level demand driver for every price move.
What does this mean for household food costs?
A global grain forecast cannot tell a household exactly what it will pay for bread, cereal, rice or other foods. It is not a forecast for local cash bids, retail flour prices or a particular futures contract, and the cited reports do not quantify when or how much a global benchmark change passes through to a shopper’s bill.
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FAO’s figures illustrate why grain prices and the total food bill should not be conflated: it estimated the 2025 global food import bill at USD 2.22 trillion, 7.9% above 2024, even though import costs for cereals declined. Higher-value food categories drove the increase. That import-bill estimate is an aggregate cost measure, not a grain-price statistic or a prediction of an individual household’s grocery spending.
How to read the next grain-price headline
- Identify the crop. Check whether the report is about wheat, maize, rice, soybeans or an aggregate grain index.
- Check the benchmark and geography. A quoted world benchmark is not automatically a local farm-gate, cash-market or retail price.
- Check the time basis. Separate daily or quarterly observations from calendar-year estimates and marketing-year forecasts.
- Check whether it is a forecast or a result. Note the publication date and whether the figure is an expectation, an estimate or a realized outcome.
- Look for the assumptions. Production, stocks, weather, trade conditions and energy or fertilizer costs can change the outlook.
Bottom line
The evidence points to a modestly higher global grain-price forecast for 2026 and 2027, led by wheat and maize—not a uniform rise across every crop, and not a dependable forecast for local grocery prices. Production forecasts are softer for the next crop year, while weather, stocks, policy and geopolitical conditions could still shift the path.
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