USDA’s January 12, 2024, crop reports showed larger-than-expected U.S. corn and soybean crops, putting pressure on prices. Farm Progress reported immediate post-release futures declines of nearly 2.5% for corn and 2% for soybeans. Those figures describe the reaction after the reports—not verified closing moves.
What drove the decline?
The main bearish surprise was domestic supply. USDA raised its estimates for both 2023 crops, citing higher yields than traders had expected. It also trimmed Brazil’s production estimates by less than the market had hoped; Argentina’s soybean estimate rose and its corn projection was unchanged. Together, the figures suggested more plentiful supplies than traders anticipated.
The same-day Farm Progress report said corn fell nearly 2.5% and soybean futures fell 2% immediately after the reports. These are reported post-release reactions, not settlement prices or full-day closing changes.
What USDA’s figures showed for corn
USDA’s 2023 U.S. corn production estimate rose to 15.3 billion bushels, based on a record average yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. Both figures exceeded pre-report trade estimates, according to the Farm Progress report.
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USDA also raised projected total corn use by 75 million bushels to about 14.6 billion: 50 million more for ethanol and 25 million more for feed and residual use. Even with that additional projected demand, 2023/24 ending stocks increased by 31 million bushels to 2.162 billion. The season-average farm-price forecast fell five cents to $4.80 per bushel.
The report put Dec. 1 quarterly corn stocks at 12.169 billion bushels, compared with 10.813 billion a year earlier. Farm Futures analyst Jacqueline Holland said the higher yield estimate and smaller-than-desired reductions to South American production drove nearby March 2024 corn through a notable support level. She noted that stronger feed and ethanol use helped limit the decline after the release.
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What USDA’s figures showed for soybeans
USDA raised its 2023 U.S. soybean production estimate by 35 million bushels to 4.2 billion, with an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre—above trade estimates cited in the report. Projected 2023/24 ending stocks rose from 245 million bushels in December to 280 million in January. USDA’s season-average farm-price forecast fell 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel.
Dec. 1 quarterly soybean stocks were estimated at 3.000 billion bushels, slightly below 3.021 billion a year earlier. For South America, USDA raised Argentina’s soybean estimate and lowered Brazil’s, but the reported outlook still pointed to large regional production.
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How the corn and soybean balance sheets compare
| Measure | Corn | Soybeans |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 U.S. production estimate | 15.3 billion bushels | 4.2 billion bushels |
| 2023 average yield estimate | 177.3 bushels per acre | 50.6 bushels per acre |
| 2023/24 ending stocks | 2.162 billion bushels, up 31 million | 280 million bushels, up from 245 million in December |
| Season-average farm-price forecast | $4.80 per bushel, down five cents | $12.75 per bushel, down 15 cents |
| South American production revisions | Brazil’s estimate was cut less than traders had hoped; Argentina’s was unchanged | Brazil’s estimate was cut and Argentina’s was raised; the regional outlook remained large |
All figures in this table are USDA estimates or forecasts as reported by Farm Progress on January 12, 2024. They are balance-sheet and farm-price figures, not exchange-traded futures settlements.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the headline does not establish the closing prices
The available same-day report describes the sharp reaction immediately after USDA’s release, but does not provide verified contract settlement prices or contract-by-contract close-to-close changes. The headline’s “more than a dime” wording is not enough to determine those figures, so it should not be treated as a substitute for settlement data.
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- GROW THE SWEETEST, MOST TENDER HEIRLOOM CORN - Each packet contains 100 seeds of Golden Bantam corn (Zea mays). This cherished variety is known for its exceptional flavor and reliable harvests. Perfect for home gardeners seeking authentic, time-tested varieties.
- SWEET CORN SEEDS FOR BEGINNERS & PROS. These vegetable seeds for planting outdoors are ideal for all skill levels. Hardy and adaptable, they thrive in full sun and a variety of soils. With low-maintenance care, enjoy growing your own corn seeds from a trusted heirloom variety loved for its sweet, tender kernels.
- PERFECT FOR MOST REGIONS – COOL CLIMATE FRIENDLY. Designed to grow in USDA zones 3-11, these corn seeds are resilient and adapt to temperatures from 65°F to 95°F. Direct sow seeds outdoors for best results—no transplanting needed. Your garden will be filled with tall, healthy stalks reaching up to 6 feet.
- MATURES EARLY FOR QUICK HARVESTS. Enjoy a bountiful crop in just 75-80 days. Each Golden Bantam stalk produces 1-2 ears of corn with 8-12 kernel rows. Perfect for backyard gardens or homesteads, it’s a reliable, fast-growing option to maximize your gardening efforts.
- VERSATILE CULINARY USES – FRESH OR PRESERVED. Grill, boil, or add to recipes like chowder, cornbread, and salsa. These sweet corn seeds yield kernels that freeze, can, or dry well, letting you enjoy homegrown corn all year round. A perfect addition for both fresh meals and long-term storage.
In a January 16 follow-up, Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr described corn’s projected ending stocks as nearly 60% above the prior year and said the higher soybean yield assumption increased supply and lowered USDA’s price forecast. He identified demand, South American production, and Chinese import interest as factors that could shape later price direction. That was subsequent market commentary, not USDA’s explanation for every move on January 12: Farm Futures, January 16, 2024.
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