As of October 8, 2026, USDA had not released its October crop estimates, so “corn production pegged higher, soybeans lower” is a possible forecast direction—not a confirmed USDA result. The latest official baseline, USDA’s September 11 report, moved the crops the other way: it cut its 2026/27 corn production estimate and raised its soybean estimate. Ahead of the October report, analysts expected corn yield below USDA’s prior estimate and soybean yield slightly above it, but those figures were forecasts, not official estimates.
What are USDA’s current corn and soybean production estimates?
The latest official estimates available before the October report were in USDA’s September 11, 2026, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). For the 2026/27 U.S. marketing year, USDA forecast 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, down 213 million bushels from August. It forecast soybean production of about 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from August. These are September projections, not final harvest totals.
| September 2026 USDA estimate, 2026/27 U.S. crop | Corn | Soybeans |
|---|---|---|
| Production | 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million from August | About 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million from August |
| Yield | 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 from August | 52.8 bushels per acre, up 0.1 from August |
| Harvested area | 88.5 million acres, slightly lower | Up 0.1 million acres |
| Ending stocks | 1.6 billion bushels, down 86 million from August | 310 million bushels, down 10 million from August |
| Season-average farm price | $4.80 per bushel, up $0.30 | $12.00 per bushel, up $0.60 |
USDA’s September corn balance sheet also projected total use at 16.2 billion bushels, 150 million below August. Feed and residual use accounted for that 150-million-bushel reduction; exports were unchanged at 3.3 billion bushels. For soybeans, USDA raised its export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion.
What did analysts expect before the October report?
A Pro Farmer preview dated October 7 reported Reuters poll averages of 177.8 bushels per acre for corn yield and 52.9 for soybean yield. The previous USDA estimates were 178.5 for corn and 52.8 for soybeans. If those averages had been reflected in USDA’s next estimates, they would have pointed toward lower corn yield and slightly higher soybean yield than in September. They do not establish the eventual production direction: production also depends on harvested acres, and poll averages are not USDA figures. The reported analyst ranges were wide—173.2 to 182.1 bushels per acre for corn and 51.4 to 54.1 for soybeans—another reason not to treat a consensus estimate as certain. See Pro Farmer’s October 7 preview.
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USDA’s schedule listed the October 2026 WASDE for October 9 at 12 p.m. Eastern. The report is a monthly assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and use. Because it was still pending as of October 8, any claim about what it actually estimated would be premature. USDA’s WASDE schedule and report page.
Why can corn and soybean forecasts move in opposite directions?
USDA builds a separate supply-and-use balance sheet for each crop. A yield change can push production in one direction while acreage or demand changes affect the other; even a production increase does not necessarily mean more is left over if exports or domestic use also rise.
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Corn: yield and acreage shape production; use and stocks show the balance
In September, USDA attributed the lower corn production forecast principally to a 2.2-bushel-per-acre yield reduction and a slight decline in harvested area. It also cut feed and residual use by 150 million bushels while leaving exports unchanged. With projected use lower by 150 million, ending stocks still fell by 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion. USDA summarized that outlook as “smaller supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks.” The September WASDE is available from USDA.
Soybeans: higher output did not mean higher carryover
USDA’s September soybean production estimate rose as both harvested area and yield edged up. But the agency also raised exports by 25 million bushels, and projected ending stocks declined by 10 million to 310 million. The combination illustrates why a production headline alone cannot tell a grower, buyer, or investor whether the supply outlook is loosening or tightening.
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What other supply and demand signals matter?
Iowa State University Extension described September’s projected corn supply and use as the second-highest on record and soybean supply and use as reaching new levels. It highlighted regional differences in yield prospects: drought concerns in the western growing region contrasted with stronger prospects in parts of the Corn Belt. Its September analysis cited projected Iowa corn yield of 219 bushels per acre, with lower year-over-year prospects in the Dakotas, Kansas, and Colorado; it also cited a projected Iowa soybean record of 64 bushels per acre alongside declines in several Plains states. These state-level projections provide context, but should not be mistaken for the national USDA yield estimates. Iowa State’s September crop outlook.
Demand assumptions matter alongside production. Iowa State’s account of the September balance sheets noted projected corn ethanol use of 5.6 billion bushels, 50 million above 2025/26, and exports of 3.275 billion. For soybeans, it cited domestic crush of 2.78 billion bushels and exports of 1.685 billion. The article also cautioned that early soybean export commitments would need to become actual shipments to sustain the demand outlook. These figures come from Iowa State’s analysis of USDA projections; they are not shipment results.
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How to read the October report when it is released
Compare the new report with September crop by crop. Production answers how much USDA expects to be harvested; the balance sheet indicates how that crop is expected to be used or carried forward. A practical comparison is:
| What to check | Corn | Soybeans |
|---|---|---|
| Production inputs | Yield and planted and harvested acres | Yield and planted and harvested acres |
| Domestic demand | Feed and residual use, ethanol, and total use | Crush, meal and oil demand, and total use |
| Trade | Export forecast, sales, and shipments | Export forecast, sales, and shipments |
| Carryover | Beginning stocks, ending stocks, and stocks-to-use | Beginning stocks, ending stocks, and stocks-to-use |
| Price outlook | Season-average farm price, considered separately from local cash prices | Season-average farm price, considered separately from local cash prices |
Carry-in stocks—the old crop remaining at the start of a new marketing year—may also affect the new balance sheet. Pro Farmer reported quarterly grain-stock figures of 2.095 billion bushels for 2025/26 corn, 173 million above the September WASDE figure, and 315.1 million bushels for 2025/26 soybeans, 9.7 million below the prior figure. Those reported figures could influence the October starting point, but they are not the same thing as USDA’s new-crop production forecast. Pro Farmer’s preview discusses the stock figures.
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How USDA estimates yield
For its September estimates, USDA’s objective-yield and farm-operator survey period ran from August 25 to September 7 and gathered expected yield information as of September 1. AgriNews reported that about 7,600 producers were interviewed for probable yield. In the objective-yield process described by the publication, USDA selected sample plots in fields, combined crop counts with historical information to develop a biological yield, and deducted average harvesting loss. The resulting estimate is a forecast based on survey and field evidence, not a count of the final crop in storage. AgriNews’s report on the September estimates and survey method.
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