U.S. corn futures fell across the listed contracts on Monday, June 23, 2025. The Brock Report attributed the decline to mostly favorable crop weather, sharp drops in crude oil and other grains, and a stronger U.S. dollar. Those are the report’s explanations, not a measured breakdown of what caused the move. USDA’s weekly crop update, released after the market close, showed corn’s good-to-excellent rating slipping to 70%.
How far did corn futures fall?
The Brock Report listed these settlements for the day. Prices are per bushel and refer to futures contracts, not local cash bids.
| Contract | Settlement | Change |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | $4.19¼ per bushel | Down 9½ cents |
| September 2025 | $4.17½ per bushel | Down 8 cents |
| December 2025 | $4.33¾ per bushel | Down 7½ cents |
The report said July corn made a new contract low and appeared to be moving toward long-term support in the $3.90–$4.00 range as delivery approached. That was technical-market commentary at the time, not a guarantee that prices would reach that range.
What pressures did market commentary cite?
The Brock Report said futures slid 7¼ to 9½ cents amid mostly favorable crop weather, sharp declines in crude oil, soybeans and wheat, and a stronger dollar. The report did not quantify how much each factor contributed, so the list is best read as contemporaneous market commentary rather than a causal calculation.
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What did USDA’s crop update show?
USDA’s crop progress update, released Monday afternoon, covered the week through Sunday, June 22. Farm Progress reported the figures as follows:
- Condition: 70% of corn was rated good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from the previous week. The fair share rose 1 point to 24%, while poor or very poor rose 1 point to 6%.
- Emergence: 97% of the crop had emerged, compared with 96% at the same point in 2024 and a five-year average of 98%.
- Silking: 4% of the crop was silking, matching 2024 and ahead of the five-year average of 3%.
The condition result was weaker than expected: Farm Progress said analysts had expected the good-to-excellent rating to hold steady, and the actual result was 2 points below trade estimates. Ben Potter, senior editor at Farm Futures, wrote: “Of particular note, corn quality ratings tracked two points lower, bucking analyst expectations.”
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Because USDA released this report after the close, it describes information available after Monday’s session, not data traders had throughout the day. Its weaker-than-expected rating complicates a simple explanation that favorable crop conditions alone drove the decline; the figures do not establish what effect the update had on prices.
What supply-and-demand context was available beforehand?
USDA’s Economic Research Service issued its June 2025 Feed Outlook on June 16, before the session. It said U.S. corn exports for the 2024/25 marketing year were running about 26% ahead of the same point in the prior marketing year through April, and raised its old-crop export projection by 50 million bushels to 2,650 million.
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For 2025/26, the outlook put U.S. corn supply at 17,210 million bushels—50 million below the May outlook but still a record. It also projected a season-average farm price of $4.20 per bushel for 2025/26, unchanged from May. That was a USDA marketing-year projection, not a futures settlement or a guaranteed price farmers would receive.
The same June outlook cited earlier crop progress: as of June 8, 97% of corn was planted and 71% was rated good to excellent. These were dated outlook figures, not the June 23 crop update or a final measure of the harvest.
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Why the timing of later reports matters
USDA’s Grain Stocks report uses June 1 as its reference date and is released at the end of June. It estimates inventories by geography and storage position; it should not be treated as information available to traders on June 23. USDA describes the program on its Grain Stocks survey page.
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