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China is shifting much of its soybean buying toward South America, and Brazil shipped record volumes to China from June through August 2026, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). But U.S. sales have not stopped: by August 13, China had booked 5.7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2026/27 delivery. The tariff figure needs a date, too: USDA described a 10% U.S. retaliatory tariff in September 2026, while its November 2025 report cited 13%. The available official sources do not establish that 13% is today’s all-in rate.
Why is China buying Brazilian soybeans while U.S. soy still faces tariffs?
The tariff disadvantage is one reason commercial buyers have relied on South American origins, USDA’s September 4, 2026 oilseeds update says. Brazil’s shipments also arrived during a period when its exports to China were running at a reported record pace. These facts point to a shift in sourcing, not a complete break in U.S.–China soybean trade.
Tariffs affect the cost and attractiveness of an origin, but the cited sources do not establish that tariffs alone explain each buying decision. Buyers also operate in a market shaped by demand, prices, availability, and shipping costs. China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said in July 2026 that businesses would make trade decisions according to market principles, actual demand, and market conditions.
What the latest figures show—and what they measure
| Figure | What it measures | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Record Brazil-to-China soybean volumes, June–August 2026 | Shipments from Brazil to China during that period, as reported by USDA FAS in September 2026 | The cited report summary gives no exact tonnage. |
| 5.7 million metric tons (MMT), as of August 13, 2026 | U.S. new-crop soybean purchases for China for 2026/27 delivery, in USDA export-sales data | These are booked sales for future delivery, not a count of cargoes already delivered. |
| 3.8 MMT, as of August 13, 2026 | U.S. soybean sales listed to “Unknown Destinations” in the same USDA export-sales snapshot | USDA says this category can indicate purchases by Chinese state-owned enterprises; it does not confirm these sales are for China. |
The numbers are not directly comparable: the Brazil figure describes shipments over three months, while the U.S. figures describe sales bookings for a marketing year. A purchase booking is not the same as a physically shipped or delivered cargo.
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What does the 13% tariff figure mean now?
It is a dated figure, not a verified current all-in rate. USDA’s November 2025 report described a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans and a 3% tariff on Brazilian soybeans. Its later update, published September 4, 2026, described the current retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans as 10%. The sources do not explain whether the earlier 13% included tariff components that remained in force, or establish the current total rate for every relevant soybean tariff line.
The distinction matters because China’s 2025 tariff measures had multiple components. In May 2025, USDA described a 10% tariff related to April’s reciprocal tariff announcements alongside separate 10–15% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products imposed in March. In November, USDA reported that China had removed certain 10–15% additional agricultural tariffs effective November 10, suspended 24 percentage points of reciprocal tariffs for another year while retaining 10%, and described the soybean rate as 13%. A percentage quoted without its date and policy basis can therefore give a misleading picture of the current import cost.
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MOFCOM referred in July 2026 to a remaining 10% tariff on U.S. agricultural products, but said the sides had agreed in principle to include relevant products in a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. It did not announce a date for a tariff change or say that the remaining tariff would be eliminated. For tariff decisions, check the current official schedule for the product and tariff line rather than assuming either 13% or 10% is the all-in rate.
Do China’s purchase commitments mean U.S. shipments are guaranteed?
No. USDA’s November 2025 report recorded a U.S. announcement that China would purchase at least 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 MMT in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Those are reported commitments, not proof that the corresponding quantities were booked or shipped.
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The September 2026 export-sales snapshot is a different measure: it records 5.7 MMT purchased for China for 2026/27 delivery by August 13, as well as 3.8 MMT assigned to unknown destinations. Do not add the unknown-destination sales to confirmed China purchases. MOFCOM’s July response also did not set a schedule for purchases to rise; it said companies would trade independently according to market principles and actual demand and conditions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How do shipping costs fit into the comparison?
Tariffs are only one part of the landed-cost comparison. Freight and other logistics affect what an importer pays to bring soybeans from origin to destination. USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service publishes quarterly analysis of total shipping costs from Brazil to Shanghai and Hamburg; its page listed the first- and second-quarter 2026 issues as the latest available. That analysis is a useful comparison point, but Brazil-to-Shanghai shipping costs alone do not determine the delivered price or prove why a buyer selected one origin over another.
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- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
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Sources
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, “China: Oilseeds and Products Update,” September 4, 2026 — Brazil shipment pace, tariff characterization, and U.S. export-sales data.
- China Ministry of Commerce, July 8, 2026 regular press conference — ministry response on purchase commitments and tariffs.
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, “China: Oilseeds and Products Update,” November 2025 — historical tariff description and reported soybean purchase commitments.
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, “China: Oilseeds and Products Update,” May 14, 2025 — tariff-component context following the Geneva announcements.
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Transportation Analysis — quarterly shipping-cost analysis and datasets.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.




