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Why Argentine Soybean Sales Slowed in June 2024 as the Currency Gap Widened

Argentine soybean sales to commercial buyers fell sharply in June 2024 as the gap between official and informal exchange rates widened, Reuters reported.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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Argentine farmers sold about 3.8 million metric tons of soybeans to commercial buyers in June 2024, a 45% drop from May, according to a Reuters report reproduced in LSEG’s July 1, 2024 commodities newsletter. The report linked the slowdown to a widening gap between the official and informal peso–dollar rates, which weakened farmers’ incentive to sell. It is a historical market report, not a description of current conditions.

What happened to soybean sales in June 2024?

Reuters reported that farmers’ soybean sales to commercial buyers were around 3.8 million metric tons in June, down 45% from May. Reuters said full-month June sales had not previously been reported. The figure came from the report’s interview with Gustavo Idigoras, president of Argentina’s oilseed and grain exporters’ chamber CIARA-CEC; the official pages consulted did not independently confirm it. LSEG’s July 1, 2024 newsletter carrying the Reuters report.

The reported comparison reflects a sharp month-to-month change, but not necessarily a lasting shift in the harvest’s overall sales pace. Farmers had accelerated sales in May to raise cash for wheat-planting expenses, according to the same report. That made May a high-pressure selling month against which June was compared.

How the official–informal currency gap was connected to selling

Reuters reported an official exchange rate of 912 pesos per U.S. dollar and an informal rate of about 1,320 pesos per dollar in June 2024, describing the difference as a 45% gap. The report compared it with an estimated 15–20% gap in May. These are the rates and comparison reported at the time, not current exchange rates. LSEG’s July 1, 2024 newsletter.

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Exporters largely converted dollars into pesos at the official rate, while a weaker peso in informal markets widened the distance between the rates. In the report’s explanation, that made selling soybeans less attractive to farmers and encouraged them to hold stocks rather than sell immediately. Idigoras described the impact this way: “When the gap between the official dollar rate, (informal) dollars and the black-market dollar begins to grow, it decreases and almost paralyzes the grain-trading market in Argentina,” Idigoras told Reuters. “It’s just natural.” This is his assessment of the market mechanism, not proof that the exchange-rate gap alone caused the decline.

Currency was not the only pressure on sales

The Reuters report also cited lower global soybean prices, associated with a stronger U.S. production outlook, as a possible reason to delay sales. A weaker incentive from the currency conversion and less favorable global prices could both weigh on farmers’ decisions; the report did not establish how much each factor contributed.

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What the slowdown meant for crushing and exports

Reuters estimated Argentine soybean crushing at around 3.8 million tons in June 2024 and around 19 million tons for the first half of the year, slightly below the 10-year average. It said the 2023/24 harvest was nearly complete and estimated production at about 50.5 million tons. These are estimates reported at the time, not later-verified outcomes. LSEG’s July 1, 2024 newsletter.

The report anticipated that lower commercial soybean supplies could be followed by declines in soybean oil and meal exports. That was a market implication identified at the time, not confirmation that those export declines subsequently occurred.

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How to interpret the figures

The 3.8-million-ton sales estimate and the exchange-rate comparison should be read as reported figures from a Reuters market story, rather than as an official statistical series. Argentina’s agriculture ministry provides a grain-trade monitor with selectable soybean trade data and campaign metrics, but its dynamic page does not independently establish the reported June 2024 sales total without matching the relevant date and definition. CIARA-CEC’s monthly settlement reports track foreign-currency settlement, a different measure from farmer soybean sales.

Later data must also be kept separate. The Central Bank of Argentina reported that the oilseeds and cereals sector had net foreign-currency sales of USD 2.915 billion in June 2026. That is sector-level exchange-market data from two years after the sales slowdown; it neither verifies the June 2024 farmer-sales estimate nor shows that the same currency gap persisted. BCRA exchange-market statistics.

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