Argentina’s grain exports could total 101.5 million metric tons in the 2024–25 season if weather is normal, according to a September 2024 forecast attributed to the Rosario Grain Exchange. The figure was a projection—not a completed export tally—and the exchange described it as the highest level since 2020–21.
What the Rosario Grain Exchange forecast
A September 24, 2024 market-news summary reported that the Rosario Grain Exchange projected exports of soy, corn, wheat and other crops could reach 101.5 million metric tons in 2024–25 under normal weather. The same report attributed a potential production total of 143 million metric tons to the exchange in that scenario. The exchange’s original report was not available in the cited material, so the figures are best attributed to the exchange as reported by ADM Investor Services’ contemporaneous summary.
The “four-year high” comparison refers to the exchange’s stated comparison with the 2020–21 season. It should not be read as confirmation that exports ultimately reached that level.
How much weather could matter
The outlook was conditional on rainfall. The same September 2024 summary said potential production could fall to 128.8 million metric tons if rainfall was insufficient, compared with 143 million metric tons in the normal-weather case.
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| Scenario in the September 2024 outlook | Potential crop production | Export projection |
|---|---|---|
| Normal weather | 143 million metric tons | 101.5 million metric tons |
| Insufficient rainfall | 128.8 million metric tons | Not stated in the contemporaneous summary |
These are scenario figures reported from the exchange’s outlook, not final production or export results. The summary did not provide a corresponding export total for the insufficient-rainfall case.
What later USDA estimates said about corn and wheat
Later USDA Foreign Agricultural Service updates give crop-specific estimates for Argentina’s 2024–25 marketing year. They do not provide a directly comparable replacement for the exchange’s broader projection, which covered soy, corn, wheat and other crops.
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| Source and date | Corn exports | Wheat exports | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDA FAS, April 21, 2025 | 37 million tons | 13 million tons | Crop-specific MY 2024/25 forecasts |
| USDA FAS, November 2025 | 30 million tons | 12.6 million tons | Crop-specific MY 2024/25 estimates |
The April figures are from USDA FAS’s April 2025 Grain and Feed Annual. Its November 2025 Grain and Feed Update put corn at 30 million tons and wheat at 12.6 million tons. The November report discussed slow corn sales, export declarations and global competition, while noting that wheat shipments had accelerated.
The lower November corn and wheat estimates show that forecasts for individual crops changed. They do not establish how the full basket of Argentine grain and oilseed exports compared with the exchange’s 101.5-million-ton projection.
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Why export totals can differ
Argentina’s grain figures can use different time periods and measures. USDA’s wheat table defines the country’s 2024–25 marketing year as beginning in December 2024 and distinguishes marketing-year (MY) exports from trade-year (TY) exports. Calendar-year customs totals follow yet another time basis. A multi-crop seasonal projection, a crop-specific MY estimate and a calendar-year total should not be treated as interchangeable.
For official follow-up, Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture provides links to crop estimates, trade resources, historical estimated grain shipments and export declarations through its open-data portal. INDEC publishes national foreign-trade series and tables at its foreign-trade statistics page. To check realized exports, match the crop coverage and period definition to the figure being assessed; those portals are data sources, not proof that the September forecast was achieved.
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