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The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its projected area for Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop from 19 million to 18.6 million hectares on Nov. 7, 2024—about 2%. Reuters reported that the exchange attributed the change to satellite-image analysis that revised the estimate of the prior crop’s planted area. It was an adjustment to an area estimate, not a report that farmers had planted less because of weather or changed plans.
What changed in Argentina’s soybean forecast?
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its 2024/25 soybean planted-area projection by 400,000 hectares, from 19 million to 18.6 million hectares. Reuters described the reduction as about 2%. The figure refers to projected planted area; it is not a measure of harvested area, crop output, or the amount of land farmers newly decided to plant.
Reuters’ Nov. 7, 2024 account said the exchange made the adjustment after satellite-image analysis of the previous soybean crop’s planted area. In other words, the reported trigger was a correction to the area estimate used in the exchange’s calculations, not a weather-driven reduction in the 2024/25 forecast or evidence of a change in planting intentions. Reuters’ contemporaneous report is the source for the specific revision and its stated reason.
Why satellite analysis can change a planted-area estimate
The exchange follows crops across Argentina’s agricultural regions and publishes weekly reports covering planting, harvest, crop condition, moisture, and production expectations. It says it has incorporated earth-observation technology into its estimates program since 2015. Its methodology describes satellite-based crop identification as a way to improve planted-area and production estimates and to correct area figures published earlier in a campaign. The exchange’s crop estimates and reports and its remote-sensing information explain the broader method; they do not replace Reuters’ account of the specific November revision.
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A satellite-based correction to a previous crop’s mapped area can affect the baseline or estimate without showing that farmers changed their plans for the current crop. That distinction matters when interpreting a forecast revision: the number changed, but the reported explanation was measurement and estimation rather than a new planting decision.
What the December report confirmed—and what it did not
In its weekly report dated Dec. 5, 2024, with data through Dec. 4, the exchange continued to use 18.6 million hectares as the projected 2024/25 soybean area. It reported that planting had reached 53.8% of that projected area, with progress of 9.4 percentage points during the week. First-crop soybeans covered 69% of the projected area, and second-crop planting had begun.
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Those are dated planting-progress figures, not season-end outcomes. The December report shows that the exchange was still using the 18.6-million-hectare projection as its denominator; it does not establish final planted area or final harvested area.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Keep the 2024/25 revision separate from later forecasts
Argentina’s 2024/25 planted-area estimate is not the same as USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts for MY2025/26. A USDA FAS annual report published in 2025 expected total soybean planted area in that later marketing year to fall by approximately one million hectares, citing growers’ expected shift toward corn and sunflower after the soy-heavy MY2024/25 and changing pest concerns. That is a separate forecast, for a later season, with a different explanation; it is not the cause or scale of the November 2024 correction.
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Production is another distinct measure. USDA FAS estimated Argentina’s MY2024/25 soybean production at 49 million metric tons in its 2025 annual report. That production estimate does not measure planted area and should not be read as a confirmation of the exchange’s 18.6-million-hectare projection.
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How to read the figures
- 19 million hectares: the exchange’s earlier 2024/25 planted-area estimate, as reported by Reuters in November 2024.
- 18.6 million hectares: the exchange’s revised 2024/25 planted-area projection, as reported by Reuters and retained in its Dec. 5, 2024 weekly report.
- About 2%: the size of the reduction reported by Reuters; it describes the forecast revision, not a proven decline in actual land planted.
- 53.8% and 9.4 percentage points: the exchange’s planting progress and weekly advance through Dec. 4, 2024, measured against its projected area.
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