Argentina’s grain exports are rising because record or unusually large harvests have created more exportable supply, while buyers have sought alternatives to disrupted Ukrainian shipments. The pace is strong, but the figures cover different products and periods: Rosario’s 60.7 million tonnes refers to grains and industrial derivatives shipped in the first half of 2026, while the government’s 41.07 million tonnes covers a broader set of agro-industrial exports from January through April.
How much grain has Argentina exported in 2026?
The most relevant half-year figure is more than 60.7 million tonnes of grains and industrial derivatives shipped in the first half of 2026, according to the Rosario Board of Trade’s July 3 report. It is a first-half shipment total, not a full-year result.
A separate government release reported 41.07 million tonnes of agro-industrial exports in January–April 2026, up 18% year over year, with export value of US$17.095 billion, up 16%. That measure covers 54 agro-industrial complexes and is based on INDEC data. Because its coverage and period differ from Rosario’s grains-and-derivatives total, the figures should not be compared as if they measured the same exports. The release also said the ten leading destinations accounted for more than 53% of total volume. Argentina’s agriculture ministry provides the details.
Which crops are driving the increase?
Maize: abundant supply and redirected demand
Maize is the clearest example of harvest strength meeting new demand. Rosario described the maize harvest as a record, and Reuters reported in March that the first month of Argentina’s new corn export season was expected to exceed 4 million tonnes. That was an early-season expectation based on the Rosario exchange report, not a completed shipment total. Reuters’ March report also noted that Argentine maize remained competitively priced despite higher shipping costs.
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A later Reuters report said market participants expected a record 10 million tonnes of corn exports across August and September. It cited a government estimate of a 71.7-million-tonne 2025/26 corn harvest. Both figures belong to that later, crop-specific update; the export figure was an expectation, not a final tally. Reuters reported the estimate and outlook on September 9.
Wheat: strong complex exports and a larger forecast
Rosario reported a record wheat harvest. Separately, the government said wheat-complex export volume rose 75% year over year in January–April 2026. This is growth in exports from the wheat complex, not a 75% increase in wheat production.
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The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s July 23, 2026 attaché report forecast 15.5 million tonnes of wheat exports for marketing year 2026/27. That is a forecast for a marketing year, not a completed calendar-year 2026 export total.
Sunflower: a strong harvest and more processed exports
Rosario described sunflower’s harvest as the best of the century and noted an exceptional start for sunflower oil and raw-seed exports. The government reported that sunflower-complex export volume increased 169% year over year in January–April. That percentage measures complex-level export volume, not the change in sunflower harvest size.
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Soybeans: the gains were not uniform
The export surge did not extend evenly across crops. At its first-half snapshot, Rosario said soybean trade commitments were 10% below average, while maize and wheat commitments were 9% to 25% above average in absolute terms. These are commitment comparisons against averages, not final shipment totals; later in the period, Rosario described soybean pricing as relatively more favorable compared with cereals.
How global turmoil is affecting demand, prices and shipping
Conflict has pushed trade in two directions. Attacks that effectively blocked Ukrainian ports led some buyers to seek alternative supplies, including Argentine maize, Reuters reported in September. European heat damage was another factor reshaping trade. These conditions help explain demand, but the reports do not establish that conflict alone caused Argentina’s export growth. Reuters’ September coverage quoted Gustavo Idigoras, head of CIARA-CEC: “Argentine corn right now is very competitive in price and in volume.”
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The same turmoil can make that trade more costly and less predictable. Reuters’ March account described disruption around shipping routes, higher freight costs and futures-market volatility linked to speculative activity. Higher transport costs can reduce exporters’ margins or weaken their price advantage, even when buyers are looking for supply. In that report, Argentine maize remained competitive despite the freight pressure; that does not mean shipping costs or prices are stable. The March report covers the route and freight risks.
Competition can also change as other exporters’ crops arrive. Reuters noted that Brazil’s later second-season maize crop could compete for buyers, so strong early demand does not guarantee Argentina will retain the same market share throughout the year.
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Why published export estimates differ
Grain export numbers can look inconsistent when they describe different products, time windows or marketing years. For context, FAO’s February 5, 2026 brief estimated Argentina’s 2025 wheat output at a record 27.8 million tonnes and forecast 13 million tonnes of wheat exports in marketing year 2025/26. It also forecast 33 million tonnes of maize exports for that marketing year, about 8% below 2024/25 because of the previous crop shortfall.
The USDA’s later July outlook projected 15.5 million tonnes of wheat exports and 60.5 million tonnes of maize production for 2026/27. These are forecasts for a different marketing year and, for maize, a production estimate rather than an export estimate. They do not replace the earlier FAO projections or establish how much Argentina ultimately shipped in calendar 2026.
- Shipments: Rosario’s first-half 2026 figure counts grains and industrial derivatives shipped.
- Agro-industrial exports: The government’s January–April total covers 54 complexes, not just grains and derivatives.
- Complex-level growth: The ministry’s wheat and sunflower percentages compare export volumes with the same months a year earlier; they are not harvest growth rates.
- Forecasts: FAO and USDA figures are projections for specified marketing years, not final calendar-year results.
What to watch next
The export outlook depends on how much of the large crop can move to market at competitive prices, whether demand for alternatives to Ukrainian supply persists, and how freight costs and futures volatility evolve. Brazil’s second-season maize adds a further source of competition. The available figures document a strong pace and favorable supply conditions, but do not isolate how much of the increase came from harvest size, redirected demand, freight, policy or price changes.
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