Adar Poonawalla’s concern was not only whether Oxford’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate would work. Serum Institute of India (SII) also had to build manufacturing capacity, secure inputs such as glass vials, assess whether it needed partners, and figure out how to move doses at enormous scale. In June 2020, Poonawalla said SII would manufacture and stockpile doses before approval, accepting the risk of a financial loss—but said nobody would receive them until safety and efficacy were established.
What was Poonawalla worried about?
In a June 2020 interview with GQ India, Poonawalla described practical questions confronting SII as it prepared to make the Oxford vaccine candidate. “Should I partner with some company? Do I have enough glass vials? Is there a technical issue that needs to be solved?” he said.
Those questions reflected a challenge beyond vaccine science: a successful candidate would still need production lines, materials, containers, and distribution systems capable of delivering doses at scale. In September 2020, he told Fortune: “If a vaccine is ready, the next biggest challenge is to manufacture it. And the third challenge is to distribute it to every corner in every part of the world.”
Why manufacture before approval?
SII planned to produce and stockpile doses while clinical evaluation was still underway. Starting early could make doses available sooner if the candidate proved successful; waiting until the results and regulatory decisions were complete would avoid building a stockpile for a vaccine that might fail, but could add time after success.
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The early-production strategy shifted financial risk to the company. Poonawalla said in the GQ interview that SII was prepared to lose money if the candidate did not work. But making doses early was not the same as giving them to people early: he said they would not be administered until safety and efficacy were proven.
What did the investment involve?
In September 2020, Poonawalla told Fortune that SII had invested in capacity and raw materials and had entered production at risk. He put the investment at about $450 million. That figure is his estimate as reported in the interview, not an independently audited total.
The production effort also had to coexist with SII’s other vaccine manufacturing. Fortune described the company shifting production while maintaining its existing vaccine work. The interviews illuminate the decisions and pressures Poonawalla described at the time; they do not establish a complete, independently audited account of SII’s operations.
What happened to the stockpile?
Hindsight shows why manufacturing at risk carried real financial and operational consequences. In a 2024 interview with TIME, Poonawalla said SII stopped making COVID-19 vaccines at the end of 2021 and destroyed around 210 million stored doses in 2022. The figure and account are his statements in that interview.
That later outcome does not change what the company faced in 2020: it was preparing capacity and stock while the candidate’s prospects remained uncertain. Nor do the 2020 interviews’ expectations about approval or efficacy establish, on their own, what happened to every forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this story says about financial risk
The episode illustrates a basic trade-off in crisis manufacturing: investing before certainty can shorten the time to supply if a product succeeds, but leaves the investor exposed if demand, approval, or the product itself does not materialize as hoped. In this case, Poonawalla’s account points to risks at both ends of the process—funding and building production before results, then solving the logistics of getting doses where they were needed.
The story is historical, not current vaccination guidance. The interviews describe Poonawalla’s statements in 2020 and, for the stockpile outcome, in 2024; they do not establish current COVID-19 vaccine availability.
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