The four-word phrase is “Father Time always wins”—but it is Geoffrey Seiler’s summary in The Motley Fool, not a verbatim line from Warren Buffett. Buffett’s farewell message makes a point about aging and mortality. The connection to investing is an illustration: regular contributions and a long time horizon can compound, but the article’s $10 million figure depends on a high assumed return and is not a promise or Buffett forecast.
What were Buffett’s four words?
“Father Time always wins” is The Motley Fool author Geoffrey Seiler’s framing of Buffett’s remarks. Buffett’s actual wording in Berkshire Hathaway’s November 10, 2025 message was: “And he is undefeated; for him, everyone ends up on his score card as ‘wins.’” Read Buffett’s message on Berkshire Hathaway’s site; Seiler’s interpretation appears in The Motley Fool’s article.
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In context, Buffett was reflecting on aging and mortality, not offering a four-word investing rule. The investing connection is more limited: time can give contributions and investment returns longer to compound, but it cannot guarantee a particular balance.
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Buffett said he would stop writing Berkshire’s annual report and speaking at length at annual meetings, while continuing to communicate through an annual Thanksgiving message. He praised Greg Abel and said Abel would become the boss at year-end. The message also reflected on Buffett’s life in Omaha, his relationships, luck, and philanthropic plans.
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It was not a technical investing formula. Buffett described Berkshire’s prospects as moderately better than average, while cautioning that the company’s size limited its odds of outperforming many companies in coming decades. He also noted that Berkshire shares can fall sharply. In a September 18, 2026 Berkshire announcement, the company said Buffett had become chairman emeritus and remained a director, and Howard G. Buffett had been elected chairman.
How the article arrives at a $10 million portfolio
The Motley Fool’s 2026 article uses an assumed annual return of 11.5%, which it says reflects the S&P 500’s average annual performance over the preceding 40 years. Under that assumption, it reports that an initial $20,000 plus $1,000 in monthly contributions could grow to roughly $10 million over 40 years. It also reports about $1.5 million for $20,000 invested alone, and about $8.5 million for $1,000 invested initially plus $1,000 monthly, using the same assumption.
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These are figures reported by The Motley Fool, not Berkshire calculations or Buffett forecasts. The article does not provide enough detail in the reviewed text to reproduce the calculation precisely, including the measurement dates, whether returns include reinvested dividends, or the effects of taxes, fees, and inflation. Treat the $10 million as a hypothetical nominal result conditional on sustained contributions and the stated return assumption—not as an expected or guaranteed outcome.
What regular investing can—and cannot—do
The SEC defines dollar-cost averaging as investing equal amounts at regular intervals regardless of market ups and downs. That approach buys more shares when prices are lower and fewer when prices are higher, which can help establish a consistent contribution habit. It does not ensure a profit or prevent losses. The SEC’s dollar-cost averaging guidance and introduction to investing explain that investment returns are not fixed and investments carry risk.
Likewise, an investor cannot buy an index directly. Index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds seek to track an index, but they still carry market risk and may have expenses, tracking error, or returns below the index they follow. The SEC recommends examining a fund’s prospectus and shareholder report, including its holdings, costs, risks, and whether its strategy fits your goals. Its Investor Bulletin on index funds offers questions to consider; it does not endorse a particular fund or make one suitable for everyone.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to judge the projection against your own plan
A long-term projection is useful only when its assumptions are visible. Before treating a headline balance as a target, consider:
Quick Recap
- Time horizon and contributions: How long can you invest, and can you sustain the monthly amount through changing circumstances?
- Return assumption: The 11.5% figure is the assumption used by The Motley Fool’s 2026 illustration, not a documented forecast for your portfolio.
- Costs and taxes: Fund expenses and taxes can reduce what remains invested and what you ultimately keep.
- Inflation: The projection is nominal; a future $10 million would not have today’s purchasing power.
- Fund and index details: Check how the index is constructed, what the fund holds, its risks, and its tracking and expenses.
- Risk fit: Market declines can be substantial. Choose an approach in light of your goals and ability to withstand losses, rather than the appeal of a single projected number.
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