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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsPalantir’s recent business results are strong, but they do not establish what its stock will be worth by 2028. Revenue growth and profitability are evidence about the company’s operating performance; a share-price forecast also requires a dated valuation, assumptions about future results and share count, and a way to test how sensitive the outcome is to those assumptions. The company’s latest guidance cited here covers FY2026, not 2028.
What Palantir sells—and why its contracts matter
Palantir says it was founded in 2003 to build software initially for the U.S. intelligence community, including tools to assist with counterterrorism investigations and operations. It later expanded into commercial enterprises. Its four principal platforms are Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). Foundry supports data operations, management, analytics, and workflows; AIP connects with third-party large language models and supports AI workflows. These descriptions come from Palantir Technologies’ FY2025 Form 10-K.
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Customers pay to use the platforms, generally through contracts lasting one to five years, though Palantir also has shorter contracts. The company generally recognizes revenue ratably over a contract’s term, and many contracts allow termination for convenience. That means reported revenue reflects contractual periods rather than proving that every customer will renew or continue at the same level. Contract duration and termination terms are relevant when judging how durable growth might be.
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Palantir’s FY2025 Form 10-K reported $4.5 billion in revenue, up 56% year over year, and $1.4 billion in GAAP income from operations. Those are realized full-year results, not a projection of future stock returns.
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Growth across customer groups
The filing reports growth in both government and commercial revenue. The figures below compare FY2025 with FY2024; U.S. commercial revenue is a geographic subset of commercial revenue, not a separate customer segment.
| Business or geography | FY2025 revenue growth vs. FY2024 | What the figure measures |
|---|---|---|
| Government | 53% | Year-over-year revenue growth in the government segment |
| Commercial | 60% | Year-over-year revenue growth in the commercial segment |
| U.S. commercial | 109% | Year-over-year revenue growth in U.S. commercial revenue |
These results show that growth was not confined to one customer type. They do not establish that either segment, or the U.S. commercial business in particular, will maintain its FY2025 pace through 2028.
The latest quarter and management’s guidance
In its Q2 2026 earnings release, dated August 3, 2026, Palantir reported quarterly revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year over year. The company also raised its FY2026 revenue guidance to at least 82% growth at the midpoint of the guidance range. The quarterly figure is a reported result; the guidance is management’s expectation, not an audited result or a forecast for 2028.
CEO Alex Karp characterized the quarter in the release as “otherworldly,” citing 149% year-over-year growth in U.S. commercial revenue, 93% growth in overall revenue, and a 155% Rule of 40 score. This is management’s description and metric framing, not a prediction of share-price performance.
Why the stock’s history cannot settle the 2028 question
Palantir’s FY2025 Form 10-K includes a total-return graph comparing Class A stock with the S&P 500 and the S&P Information Technology Index. Its measurement period runs from September 30, 2020, when Palantir began trading on the NYSE, through December 31, 2025. The filing says the historical returns are not intended to suggest future performance. The numerical plotted returns are not stated in the filing text cited here, so they should not be inferred or quoted from that text.
The filing’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis makes the limitation explicit: “Our historical results are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected for any period in the future.” That is Palantir’s statement in a regulatory filing, not an independent analyst’s assessment. A strong historical stock return, even if measured precisely, would describe what happened over a past period; it would not determine the return an investor earns after buying at a later price.
Likewise, fast revenue growth can coexist with different future stock outcomes. A company may keep expanding while its shares rise, stagnate, or fall depending in part on what investors paid for expected growth, how results develop relative to expectations, and how the market values those results. Operating momentum alone cannot answer how much of it is already reflected in the share price.
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A numerical target needs more than a trend line. The company’s FY2026 guidance does not reach the 2028 horizon, and the filings and release cited here do not establish a current share price or valuation from which to calculate a supported target. A serious scenario analysis would need dated inputs and explicit assumptions, including:
- A starting share price and valuation date: forecasts are only interpretable when tied to the price investors could actually pay on a stated date.
- Operating assumptions: separate revenue growth and margin assumptions for government and commercial business, with attention to U.S. and non-U.S. exposure.
- Contract durability: assess whether new and existing customers continue using the platforms, while accounting for contract terms and termination provisions.
- Share-count assumptions: estimate the number of shares under each scenario, since per-share outcomes depend on how company performance translates to each share.
- Sensitivity analysis: show how the result changes when growth, margins, or the valuation investors assign to the business differ from the central case.
Without those dated market inputs and assumptions, a specific price or return by 2028 would be false precision. Investors can monitor subsequent filings and guidance against the assumptions they choose, but neither a scenario nor management guidance should be treated as a guaranteed outcome.
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