On 13 March 2024, PerthNow reported that Western Australia was forecast to receive an $830 million increase in its GST allocation for the following year, taking its total to $7.25 billion. Queensland and New South Wales were forecast to receive cuts of $469 million and $310 million, while Victoria’s estimated GST revenue was reported to rise by $3.7 billion. These were forecasts reported at the time, not current allocation figures. The headline’s “suffer in your jocks” phrasing refers to the political dispute over how the system treats states with different revenue-raising capacity.
What the 2024 GST forecast showed
The figures reported by PerthNow on 13 March 2024 were forecasts for the following year:
| State | Reported forecast |
|---|---|
| Western Australia | $830 million increase, bringing its total to $7.25 billion |
| Queensland | $469 million reduction |
| New South Wales | $310 million reduction |
| Victoria | $3.7 billion increase in estimated GST revenue |
The figures describe that particular forecast and should not be read as a comparison of current state payments or a long-term trend.
How GST is divided between states
The PerthNow report described the system as horizontal fiscal equalisation (HFE). In broad terms, states are assessed partly on their capacity to raise revenue from sources such as mining royalties and stamp duty. The dispute is about how that assessment affects each state’s share, not simply where GST is collected or which state has the largest population.
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Saffioti also pointed to revenue sources the report said were exempt from the formula: pokies taxes and toll-road revenue. She argued this was an asymmetry because WA did not collect those revenues. The article’s account is not a full technical description of the current HFE rules, so it does not establish how every revenue category or state cost is treated.
Why WA’s treasurer said the eastern states were facing a familiar problem
WA Treasurer Rita Saffioti defended the arrangement by comparing the eastern states’ forecast reductions with WA’s earlier experience when mining royalties were high. As quoted by PerthNow, she said: “Welcome to our world,” and “No one sympathised with us.” She also said: “We’ve been facing it year in, year out, to a much bigger degree before the floor came in.”
Those remarks express Saffioti’s political argument: WA had previously experienced larger royalty-linked reductions, and she saw the current outcome for NSW and Queensland as a similar effect. They do not independently demonstrate that the system treats states fairly overall.
Why NSW’s treasurer called the result unfair
NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey argued that the state’s population growth was not being reflected fairly in its GST allocation and called for reform. PerthNow quoted him saying: “NSW takes most of the nation’s population growth but is being punished by having its GST cut.” That is Mookhey’s characterization of the forecast, rather than a settled finding about the formula’s fairness.
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What the pre-2018 comparison means
PerthNow also reported a historical counterfactual: under the pre-2018 system, WA’s share was projected to fall to 11 cents per dollar, leaving the state $6.2 billion worse off and with a total of $1.05 billion in the following year. These figures describe the article’s comparison with an earlier system; they are not WA’s current share or allocation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.The federal review and what is known about its status
On 24 September 2025, the federal government announced that the Productivity Commission would review the 2018 GST-distribution changes. The announcement set an interim-report deadline of 28 August 2026 and said the final report was due before 31 December 2026. The announcement and timetable are available in the Treasury Ministers release.
A September 2026 release from the Treasurer’s office said Queensland’s GST payments were almost $20 billion that year, up $2.6 billion on the previous year and expected to rise each year for at least four more years. It also cited almost $7 billion in Queensland coal royalties for that year. These are claims in a federal government release, not an independent assessment of whether the distribution is fair. The reviewed sources do not establish whether the Productivity Commission had published its interim report by the stated deadline or what it found. The release is available from the Treasurer’s office.
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