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In its May 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the USDA lowered its 2023/24 Brazil corn production estimate by 2 million metric tons, to 122 million, and its soybean estimate by 1 million metric ton, to 154 million. These are historical estimates, not current production figures. The May report also introduced the USDA’s first projections for the 2024/25 crop year, a separate forecast cycle.
How far did the Brazil estimates fall?
The April-to-May changes were modest revisions to USDA estimates for Brazil’s 2023/24 crop. The figures below are reported in Successful Farming’s May 10, 2024 coverage; that article is secondary reporting, not a directly retrieved USDA table.
| Crop | April 2024 estimate | May 2024 estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil corn | 124 million metric tons | 122 million metric tons | Down 2 million metric tons |
| Brazil soybeans | 155 million metric tons | 154 million metric tons | Down 1 million metric ton |
Successful Farming reported trade expectations of 122.2 million metric tons for Brazil corn and 152.2 million metric tons for Brazil soybeans. Those were reported market expectations, not USDA estimates. On that comparison, the USDA corn figure was slightly lower than expectations, while its soybean figure was higher.
Which crop year does the headline refer to?
The Brazil reductions above concern the 2023/24 crop estimates. The May 2024 WASDE also contained the USDA’s first supply-and-demand projections for 2024/25, but that does not make the Brazil revisions shown here 2024/25 figures. Crop-year labels matter: a report can include estimates for one crop year and initial projections for the next.
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What WASDE estimates mean
WASDE is a monthly USDA report prepared by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). USDA says it provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton. The board chairs interagency commodity estimates committees, whose analysts compile and interpret USDA and other domestic and foreign information. See the official USDA WASDE report page.
A production estimate is not a final tally of harvested output. It is one component of a supply-and-demand outlook that can be revised as information changes. When comparing figures, identify the reporting agency, release date, crop year, commodity, units, and whether the number is a forecast or an observed result.
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How later Brazil figures differ
Subsequent estimates should not be treated as revisions to the May 2024 WASDE numbers unless they refer to the same agency series and crop year. For example, CONAB’s September 15, 2026 release estimated Brazil’s total 2025/26 grain crop at 361.7 million tonnes, up 2.6% year over year and 0.3% from its August estimate; it also described record estimates for soybean and corn production. Those are CONAB estimates for a later crop year, not updates to the 2023/24 USDA figures. See CONAB’s release.
A USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report from Brasilia separately gave a local Post forecast of 133 million metric tons for Brazil corn in marketing year 2025/26, down 2% from that Post’s 136-million-ton estimate for 2024/25. The report connected the expected decline to La Niña risks and possible regional rainfall differences. This is a local Post outlook, not the May 2024 WASDE estimate or a final harvest result. See the USDA FAS Brasilia report.
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Is there a newer USDA WASDE?
As of October 8, 2026, USDA’s calendar listed the October 2026 WASDE release for October 9 at 12:00 p.m. ET, so it was not yet available on that date. Check the USDA WASDE page for the report and release schedule; current estimates should not be inferred from the 2024 revisions.
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