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Yes. Despite the 2025 federal shutdown, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) collected field-sample and farmer-survey data for its November crop report, released November 14, 2025. The report forecast record-high yields for corn and soybeans, but there was no October 1 yield forecast: USDA did not publish its October Crop Production report.
Did USDA collect crop survey data during the shutdown?
Yes. During the shutdown, NASS official Lance Honig told Reuters, “We are collecting the necessary survey and administrative data to support the forecasts in the report.” He also said, “We’re using normal collection procedures for both surveys.” The report was then scheduled for November 14, 2025, and NASS released it on that date. Reuters reported the contemporaneous announcement; the completed November 2025 Crop Production report documents the estimates and methods.
What did the November report forecast for corn and soybeans?
NASS’s November 2025 forecasts showed different changes for the two crops. “Previous forecast” means the prior published estimate; because the October report was not issued, it is not an October-to-November comparison.
| Crop | 2025 production forecast | Change from previous published forecast | Change from 2024 | Forecast yield | Harvested area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn for grain | 16.8 billion bushels | Down less than 1% | Up 12% | 186.0 bushels per acre, a record high | 90.0 million acres |
| Soybeans | 4.25 billion bushels | Down 1% | Down 3% | 53.0 bushels per acre, a record high | 80.3 million acres |
These are NASS forecasts for 2025 in the November 2025 report, not final production results. The same release forecast all-cotton production at 14.1 million 480-pound bales, 7% above its previous forecast and 2% below 2024. It also included revised 2024 peanut acreage, yield, and production that ordinarily would have appeared in October. NASS, Crop Production, November 2025.
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How did USDA estimate yields?
NASS said objective-yield and farm-operator surveys ran from October 25 through November 9, 2025, to gather information on expected yield as of November 1. The agency’s report states: “Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between October 25 and November 9 to gather information on expected yield as of November 1.”
Objective-yield field samples
For corn and soybeans, NASS sampled randomly selected plots in major producing states that typically account for about 75% of U.S. production. Field staff revisited plots, counted plants and ears or pods, and recorded measurements related to crop weight. NASS compared biological-yield estimates with prior-year data and subtracted average harvesting loss to estimate net yield.
Farm-operator survey and review
About 6,690 producers were interviewed for the 2025 survey, primarily by telephone, with some responses collected by mail, internet, and personal interview. They reported probable yields. NASS regional field offices reviewed objective-yield results and grower-reported data against historical estimates, weather, and crop progress, then submitted analyses to the Agricultural Statistics Board for the November 1 forecasts. NASS Statistical Methodology, November 2025.
Why is there no October crop forecast?
NASS did not publish the October 2025 Crop Production report, so the November release contains no October 1 yield forecasts. Its changes are measured against the preceding published forecast, not an October estimate. The shutdown also interrupted public acreage releases: USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) records that its scheduled October 9 and November 10, 2025 crop-acreage reports were not released. NASS says FSA planted-acreage data complement its survey data; the public release gap alone does not establish that NASS had no access to administrative acreage information. FSA crop acreage reports.
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A forecast is an estimate, not a final tally or a guarantee of market direction. NASS reports a historical root mean square error of 1.3% for the November 1 corn production forecast. Under the historical reliability assumptions in its report, that corresponds to a two-in-three chance that the forecast will differ from the final estimate by no more than 1.3%. It does not say whether the 2025 forecast is likely to be too high or too low. NASS also says the November 1 forecast will not be revised; a new forecast is made each month through the growing season. NASS Statistical Methodology, November 2025.
USDA crop estimates are closely monitored by grain traders, and NASS says crop-progress and condition estimates help producers, agribusinesses, and traders assess growing conditions and business risks. Those uses do not establish that this report caused any particular price move. For broader monthly U.S. and world supply-and-use projections, USDA identifies its WASDE report as a related resource in its 2026 Products and Services Guide.
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- PROUDLY PRINTED & MANUFACTURED IN THE USA - We take great pride in our complete and transparent origin stories. Each of our thin notebooks and journals is bestowed with evidence of our artisan-first processes, like locally printed pages from suppliers in the midwest and precisely rounded corners stamped by a machine noted inside the back cover.
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