USDA’s February 2026 long-term baseline projects planted area for eight major U.S. field crops falling from 247.6 million acres in marketing year 2026/27 to 241.6 million in 2035/36, a 2.4% decline. That is a conditional national scenario—not a count of acres farmers have already planted, a prediction for any one farm, or a forecast of farm income.
Is U.S. crop acreage declining?
In USDA Economic Research Service’s February 2026 baseline, the combined planted area of corn, soybeans, wheat, upland cotton, oats, rice, sorghum, and barley declines by 6.0 million acres between marketing years 2026/27 and 2035/36. ERS summarized the projection on April 21, 2026. USDA ERS’s acreage summary gives the starting total as 247.6 million acres and the ending total as 241.6 million, a 2.4% reduction.
This is a national total for those eight crops, not a measure of all U.S. agricultural land or every crop grown. It also describes a modeled path over time; it does not establish what farmers ultimately plant in a particular year.
What does the baseline project for corn, soybeans, and wheat?
The overall decline does not mean every crop follows the same path. ERS’s projections show different movements for the three largest crops in the summary:
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| Crop | Projected planted area | How the path changes |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 98.8 million acres in 2025/26; 95.0 million in 2026/27; 91.0 million in 2035/36 | Declines across the figures shown. |
| Soybeans | 85.0 million acres in 2026/27; 83.0 million later in the projection horizon | Rises to 85.0 million, then eases. |
| Wheat | 45.3 million acres in 2025/26; 44.0 million throughout the projection period | Falls from 2025/26, then remains at 44.0 million in the baseline. |
These crop figures are from the ERS 2026 acreage summary. They help explain why a combined acreage total can decline even while one crop first rises. The baseline also describes steady to slightly higher crop prices alongside rising input prices, leaving margins tight for most crops in its scenario. That is USDA’s explanation of the modeled outlook, not a claim about every producer’s costs or returns.
What does “USDA baseline” mean?
ERS defines its baseline as a plausible long-run scenario for agricultural supply, demand, prices, farm income, and related indicators. Its baseline documentation describes projections built on assumptions including macroeconomic trends, agricultural policies unchanged under current law, normal weather without extreme events, continued productivity growth, and no major domestic shocks. Historical supply-and-demand information provides the starting point.
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Those assumptions make the baseline useful for considering a possible long-term trajectory, but they also define its limits. A change in policy, weather, productivity, markets, or other conditions can produce a different outcome. The projection is not a guarantee, a farm-level recommendation, or an estimate of what will be planted in an upcoming season.
The current full ERS release is Agricultural Projections to 2035, updated February 13, 2026. ERS says it reflects conditions as they existed when the November 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released, and that the 2026 edition focuses on domestic commodity projections. Its horizon and underlying data vintage matter when comparing it with newer annual statistics.
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These USDA releases answer different questions. ERS’s baseline models a long-run scenario; USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reports producers’ intentions and later estimates planted acreage using a survey. Keep the crop, year, publication date, and status of each number attached when comparing them.
| USDA figure | What it describes | 2026 information |
|---|---|---|
| ERS baseline | Conditional long-run scenario, released February 2026 and extending through 2035/36 | Eight-crop total of 247.6 million acres in 2026/27 and 241.6 million in 2035/36. |
| NASS Prospective Plantings | Producer intentions, released March 31, 2026 | Producers intended to plant 95.3 million acres of corn; the release estimated all wheat planted area at 43.8 million acres. See the NASS release. |
| NASS Acreage report | Survey-based estimate of what farmers planted, released June 30, 2026 | Estimated 95.3 million corn acres and 85.4 million soybean acres planted for 2026. NASS surveyed approximately 90,300 farm operators during the first two weeks of June. See the NASS release. |
Prospective Plantings is an intentions report, not the final planted-area estimate. The June Acreage report is a later, survey-based estimate of planting for that year. Neither should be substituted for ERS’s multi-year baseline: the figures differ in purpose, time horizon, data status, and—in some comparisons—the crop set.
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Are farmers planting less corn in 2026?
The June 30, 2026 NASS Acreage report estimated 95.3 million acres of corn planted for 2026. That is the report’s annual survey estimate, not a conclusion drawn from the ERS baseline. For comparison, the baseline projected 95.0 million corn acres for marketing year 2026/27 and 91.0 million for 2035/36. Those figures belong to different USDA products and have different data status and framing; their proximity does not make them interchangeable or show what any individual farmer planted.
How to compare USDA acreage numbers responsibly
Before treating two acreage figures as evidence of a trend, check what each one measures:
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- Time period: Match the marketing year or crop year; a projection for 2026/27 is not automatically the same measure as an estimate for 2026.
- Status: Label the number as a baseline projection, producer intention, or survey-based acreage estimate.
- Crop coverage: Check whether it refers to one crop, all wheat, or a specified multi-crop total such as ERS’s eight-crop group.
- Publication and data vintage: The 2026 ERS baseline uses conditions at the November 2025 WASDE release; the NASS reports were issued in March and June 2026.
- Geography: A national total does not tell you what is happening in a particular state or on an individual operation.
For a national long-term view, ERS also provides background on its Agricultural Baseline program. For annual planting information, use the relevant NASS release and preserve its date and estimate status.
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