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The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) forecast a 2.7% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026; the announced adjustment was 2.8%, a difference of 0.1 percentage point. TSCL’s 3.5% figure for 2027 was still a forecast as of October 12, 2026—not the official COLA.
How close was TSCL’s prediction for the 2026 COLA?
TSCL published its 2.7% forecast for the 2026 COLA on September 11, 2025. On November 6, 2025, it recorded the announced adjustment as 2.8%. The forecast was therefore 0.1 percentage point below the announced rate—not 0.1% in relative error. TSCL’s press-room archive lists both the forecast and the later announcement.
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| Item | Figure | Date |
|---|---|---|
| TSCL forecast for the 2026 COLA | 2.7% | September 11, 2025 |
| Announced 2026 COLA | 2.8% | November 6, 2025 |
| Difference | 0.1 percentage point below the announced rate | Calculated from the two published figures |
The Social Security Administration’s 2026 Trustees Report also identifies 2.8% as the actual 2025 COLA. SSA labels an adjustment by the calendar year in which it takes effect: the COLA for a given year applies to December benefits, generally paid in January of the following year. TSCL’s public-facing pages commonly use the year beneficiaries receive the increased payment. See the SSA 2026 Trustees Report and TSCL’s archive for the respective records.
What was TSCL’s 2027 estimate as of October 12, 2026?
TSCL’s September 11, 2026 release put its final 2027 COLA estimate at 3.5%. It was still an estimate on October 12: TSCL said the official announcement would follow the September CPI-W release on October 14. Its release described the 3.5% forecast as 0.1 percentage point below its August forecast and 0.7 percentage point above the 2026 adjustment. The latter comparison shows the difference between two annual rates; it says nothing about the accuracy of the 2027 forecast.
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When TSCL issued the estimate, its release reported July CPI-W at 3.4% and August at 3.5%; the September reading had not yet been released. TSCL said the COLA calculation uses the average yearly change in CPI-W for July, August, and September. The September 11 TSCL release describes the estimate and the pending data. Until the official announcement, 3.5% should be attributed to TSCL rather than presented as the confirmed 2027 COLA.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does one close forecast say about TSCL’s accuracy?
It shows that this particular forecast was close: TSCL’s 2026 estimate missed the announced adjustment by 0.1 percentage point. It does not establish that TSCL’s model is generally accurate or inaccurate. The sources cited here do not provide a multi-year evaluation of forecast errors, so a broader performance verdict would go beyond the available evidence.
TSCL says its monthly model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate, and that it updates as economic conditions change. The organization identifies the model as version 1.2, released in January 2025, with changes to how it handles federal fiscal-year data and how much it relies on earlier forecasts within that fiscal year. Those are TSCL’s descriptions of its approach, not an independent validation of its results. See its model explanation.
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