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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallThe State Bank of Pakistan’s February 2026 forecast put real GDP growth in fiscal year 2025–26 (FY26) at 3.75%–4.75%. The headline figure of 4.75% was the top of a range, not a promise that growth would reach that level. SBP later kept the range in March and warned in April that growth could land closer to its lower end.
What did SBP forecast for Pakistan’s FY26 growth?
In its February 2026 Monetary Policy Report, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projected real GDP growth of 3.75%–4.75% in FY26. The fiscal year covers July 2025 through June 2026. The forecast was a range: 4.75% was its upper bound, not a single-point estimate or a guaranteed outcome. SBP’s February 2026 report presented the forecast as an improved outlook.
In the same report, SBP listed FY25 growth as 3.1% actual and showed its August 2025 FY26 projection as 3.25%–4.25%. The February forecast raised both ends by 0.5 percentage points.
| SBP publication | FY26 real GDP growth range | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 3.25%–4.25% | Earlier projection |
| February 2026 | 3.75%–4.75% | Both bounds rose by 0.5 percentage points |
| March 2026 | 3.75%–4.75% | MPC retained the February range |
| April 2026 | Prior range; outcome seen as closer to its lower bound | SBP highlighted downside risk |
Why did SBP raise its projection?
SBP’s February assessment pointed to stronger-than-expected activity early in the fiscal year and improving momentum across several sectors. Its January 26, 2026 monetary policy statement reported Q1 FY26 real GDP growth of 3.7% year over year, compared with 1.6% in the corresponding quarter a year earlier. The statement also cited high-frequency indicators—including auto sales, cement dispatches, petroleum, oil and lubricant (POL) sales excluding furnace oil, fertilizer offtake, and machinery and intermediate-goods imports—as signs of continued activity. SBP’s January statement additionally reported large-scale manufacturing growth of 8.0% year over year in October 2025 and 10.4% in November, with cumulative growth of 6.0% in July–November.
The February report also described improving agriculture and industrial activity, with expected spillovers to services. These were reasons for a stronger forecast, not evidence that the upper end would necessarily be achieved.
How did the outlook change after February?
March: range retained
In March 2026, SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said it expected FY26 growth to remain within the 3.75%–4.75% range. It pointed to stronger readings in auto sales, cement dispatches, electricity generation, and POL sales, along with favorable wheat-sowing and input conditions. The statement also noted uncertainty from international commodity prices, supply chains, and geopolitical developments. Read SBP’s March 2026 statement.
April: risk shifted toward the lower end
In its April 27, 2026 statement, SBP said the expected spillover of the Middle East conflict into industrial and services activity in the fourth quarter could leave FY26 growth closer to the lower bound of the earlier range. That qualification matters: the 4.75% headline is not the only relevant part of the forecast. Read SBP’s April 2026 statement.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the forecast does—and does not—tell you
A GDP growth projection is an estimate of how much economic output may expand over a period; it is not a measure of household income growth, a forecast for every sector, or a guarantee that an individual’s finances will improve at the same rate. SBP’s February report also discussed inflation, external balances, and reserves, but those were separate projections rather than components of the GDP growth range.
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SBP’s publications listing includes an August 2026 Monetary Policy Report and a September 14, 2026 monetary policy statement. The listing confirms those publications existed, but does not establish their FY26 growth estimate. The final FY26 growth outcome is likewise not verified here. Accordingly, 3.75%–4.75% should be read as the February 2026 forecast, with the March and April follow-ups described above—not as the latest confirmed projection or the realized result. Check SBP’s publications for subsequent official releases.
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