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How much had exporters sold?
The reported total was just over 3 million metric tons as of July 24, 2025, for the 2025/26 marketing year, which began September 1, 2025. The 20-year-low comparison and 12% year-over-year decline are Braun’s reported analysis; they are not an independently recalculated USDA historical series in the material cited here. Karen Braun’s report described the pace as unusually slow.
New-crop sales are commitments for a future marketing year. They should not be confused with soybeans already shipped. Comparing one year’s pace with another requires aligning the marketing-year delivery period and the same reporting week or date.
Why was the pace unusually slow?
The 2025 account identified one notable factor: China had not bought a new-crop U.S. soybean cargo as of July 24. Braun wrote: “New-crop sales are struggling because China has yet to buy a single cargo, and this is China’s latest start in the U.S. bean market since 2005.” The report noted that China’s first purchase in 2005 came in the week ended August 11.
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That context helps explain the reported sales pace, but the headline comparison by itself does not establish a single cause for the low total. The China detail is specific to the July 2025 snapshot, not a current buyer update. On August 6, 2026, a later market update reported nearly 6 million metric tons of Chinese new-crop purchases. The August 2026 update shows why the earlier “no cargo yet” statement must remain dated.
What USDA export-sales figures measure
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) administers the Export Sales Reporting Program. Exporters report covered transactions with foreign buyers each week, including soybean sales, regardless of quantity. FAS publishes summary data; its Export Sales Query System provides weekly U.S. export-sales information by commodity and destination. FAS also describes the program and its reporting requirements at Export Sales Reporting Program.
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These reports track sales and related export activity, so a sales commitment is not proof that the shipment has already occurred. For a destination breakdown or a year-by-year comparison, use the USDA query data and match the marketing year and reporting date. The cited July 2025 account does not provide the detailed soybean table needed to independently calculate a more precise total or rank.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does the 20-year low still apply?
No such present-day conclusion follows from the July 2025 figure. The comparison describes sales as of July 24, 2025, and does not establish that sales remain at a 20-year low in October 2026. FAS listed an October 8, 2026 Export Sales Report, but the reviewed material does not provide its soybean table or a comparable current 20-year series. To make a current claim, check the latest USDA Export Sales Query System data and compare the same reporting point across years.
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