Maybe—but the bullish case depends on growth that has yet to be proved, and there is no verified current share price here to establish whether SpaceX is cheap today. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued in a report covered by Benzinga on October 5, 2026, that SpaceX’s steep headline valuation looks more reasonable when measured against expected growth. Morningstar’s June 2026 analysis reached a much more cautious conclusion using a probability-weighted valuation. The gap between them is chiefly about how much value to assign to AI and Starship, and how likely those businesses are to meet ambitious expectations.
Why one analyst says SpaceX looks cheap
Benzinga reported that Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300-per-share target in a Morgan Stanley note titled “Cheap and Getting Cheaper.” His central argument was not that SpaceX had a low conventional valuation multiple. It was that the company’s expected growth could make that high multiple look more attractive than it first appears.
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At a $159 reference price, Jonas’s analysis put SpaceX at about 30 times estimated 2028 enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes (EV/EBIT). Benzinga reported that a selected group of mega-cap AI enablers traded at about 16 times on the same measure. On the headline multiple alone, SpaceX looked more expensive.
The comparison changed when Morgan Stanley adjusted the multiple for expected growth. Benzinga reported a growth-adjusted EV/EBIT measure of about 0.3 times for SpaceX, against a median of about 0.5 times for the comparison group. In other words, Jonas’s model treated each dollar of forecast growth as more than sufficient to offset SpaceX’s higher starting multiple. At his $300 target, the growth-adjusted measure would rise to about 0.6 times, according to the report.
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These are Morgan Stanley estimates reported by Benzinga, not audited company results or independently verified forecasts. Growth-adjusted multiples are also sensitive to the forecasts and methodology behind them. A lower ratio does not by itself prove that a share is undervalued.
How much of the valuation depends on AI
Jonas’s sum-of-the-parts analysis makes the AI bet explicit. As Benzinga described it, at the $159 reference price he attributed about $127 per share to SpaceX’s space and connectivity businesses. That leaves $32 per share as the market-implied value of AI in that framing. His own model assigned $165 per share to enterprise AI after applying a 50% execution-risk discount.
The difference is a major part of the bullish argument, but the $165 figure is a model estimate—not revenue already earned, a guaranteed business outcome, or an independently established value. It assumes SpaceX can build and commercialize an enterprise AI business at a scale that the market price, in Jonas’s framing, did not yet fully recognize.
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Compute economics are another sensitive input. Benzinga reported Jonas’s view that changes in compute pricing and deployment “can swing even next year’s revenue by potentially a multiple.” The account said that a $10-per-watt increase in one consensus assumption could add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue. That is a conditional estimate based on a particular pricing assumption, not a forecast of revenue SpaceX will necessarily generate.
Why Morningstar’s valuation is much lower
Morningstar’s June 8, 2026 analysis used a probability-weighted discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation rather than Jonas’s growth-adjusted multiple and sum-of-the-parts framing. It estimated fair value at $63 per share, compared with the then-upcoming $135 offering price, and assigned only a 7% probability to its optimistic “Moonshot” scenario. Morningstar said the offering price implied a much higher likelihood of ambitious outcomes.
Morningstar’s $63 estimate is a historical, assumption-dependent valuation, not a current target. Its analysts focused on two difficult tests: making Starship rapidly reusable and making orbital data centers commercially competitive. In their June analysis, they did not expect either to be resolved before 2028. The report’s authors wrote: “The IPO price implies the Moonshot scenario is highly likely, but we think the outlook is very uncertain.”
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The figures from the two firms should not be read as simultaneous competing targets. Jonas’s October report used a $159 reference price and a growth-focused framework; Morningstar’s June report compared its probability-weighted value with a then-upcoming $135 offering price. Different dates, methods, assumptions, and price contexts explain part of the gap.
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| Question | Morgan Stanley view as reported by Benzinga, October 5, 2026 | Morningstar view, June 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation method | Growth-adjusted EV/EBIT comparison and sum-of-the-parts model | Probability-weighted DCF |
| Key upside assumptions | AI compute growth and pricing, plus Starship catalysts | Scenario-dependent AI commercialization and rapidly reusable Starship |
| Central uncertainty | Compute pricing and deployment, and execution in AI and Starship | Whether orbital AI can be commercially competitive and Starship can become rapidly reusable |
| Reported valuation figures | $300 target; about 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT and about 0.3 times growth-adjusted EV/EBIT at a $159 reference price | $63 probability-weighted fair value; 7% assigned to the Moonshot scenario, compared with a then-upcoming $135 offering price |
| Important context | Benzinga reported Morgan Stanley had co-managed a SpaceX offering in the preceding year and received investment banking fees from the company | The estimate reflects Morningstar’s June 2026 assumptions and is not a current target |
For an investor evaluating the thesis, the practical question is not simply whether SpaceX grows quickly. It is whether its eventual AI and launch economics justify the expectations already embedded in the valuation—and whether those outcomes arrive soon enough to support the price. A growth-adjusted ratio can favor SpaceX if its forecasts hold; a scenario-based DCF can look much lower if the most ambitious outcomes receive little probability or are delayed.
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AI pricing and deployment
Jonas’s reported model is unusually sensitive to compute pricing assumptions. Investors would need to distinguish a proposed price per unit of capacity from paid demand, deployed capacity, utilization, and resulting margins. The published analysis does not establish realized enterprise AI revenue or prove that the model’s pricing assumptions will be achieved.
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Starship reusability and test outcomes
Benzinga reported Jonas’s view that a successful Starship ship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO.” That is an attributed, dated catalyst assessment—not confirmation that a catch occurred or a forecast that it will occur on a particular schedule. Morningstar’s contrasting analysis emphasized that rapid reusability remained an unresolved engineering and commercial challenge in its June 2026 outlook.
The downside scenarios Benzinga attributed to Jonas included slower AI progress, a serious Starship test setback, or a dilutive capital raise. Each could weaken the expected growth or change how much value investors assign to future opportunities.
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Axios reported on October 9, 2026, that SpaceX announced a deal to acquire nationwide low-band spectrum connected to its Starlink mobile ambitions. Spectrum could help extend service into places where satellite connectivity struggles, including indoors, but owning licenses does not provide the physical infrastructure needed for broad terrestrial wireless coverage.
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Bernstein analyst Madison Rezaei told Axios, “Buying spectrum is not a commitment to build a nationwide network,” while saying the acquisition made that option more credible and less expensive. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell told Axios, “I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better.” These statements describe a strategic possibility and an executive expectation, not evidence that a nationwide service will succeed.
What the available figures can—and cannot—tell you
The $159 reference price in Benzinga’s October 5 account and the $135 offering-price reference in Morningstar’s June analysis are historical inputs to those analyses. No reliable live share price was established in the cited material, so neither figure can answer whether SpaceX is cheap at the price available now. The $300 and $63 figures also are not a consensus range: they arise from different analysts, dates, valuation methods, and assumptions.
For a current decision, compare a current market price with updated forecasts and ask what must happen for the optimistic case to work: meaningful AI demand at attractive prices, successful Starship development and reuse, and the capital and infrastructure needed to turn plans into operating businesses. If those assumptions seem too uncertain to underwrite, the headline growth-adjusted multiple is not enough to establish a margin of safety.
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