No. Looking back from October 2026, the evidence supports that the United States did not enter an NBER-dated recession during 2025. A Federal Reserve analysis published in January 2026 likewise judged a recession over 2023–2025 unlikely, though that was a model-based assessment—not a new formal recession date from the NBER.
What counts as a U.S. recession?
A recession is not officially declared just because real GDP falls for two consecutive quarters. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis explains that “the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation.” The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates U.S. business-cycle peaks and troughs using a broader, monthly view of economic activity.
That assessment considers indicators such as employment, personal income, industrial production and quarterly GDP. GDP remains important evidence, but two negative quarterly readings alone do not establish an official NBER-dated recession. See the BEA glossary entry on recessions and the NBER business-cycle chronology.
What did forecasters expect during 2025?
Federal Reserve projections anticipated slower growth than the central bank projected earlier in the year, but they were forecasts—not recession calls or final results. The figures below are medians of individual FOMC participants’ projections, based on information available at the relevant meetings and each participant’s assumptions about appropriate monetary policy.
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| Projection date | 2025 real GDP growth | Q4 2025 unemployment | 2025 PCE inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 18–19, 2025 FOMC meeting | 1.7% median projection | 4.4% median projection | 2.7% median projection |
| September 16–17, 2025 FOMC meeting | 1.6% median projection | 4.5% median projection | Not stated in the September figures cited here |
The March and September projections are published in the Federal Reserve’s March 2025 projections and September 2025 projections. They indicate that participants marked down expected growth slightly and projected somewhat higher Q4 unemployment by September. Neither change, by itself, determines whether a recession occurred.
What did later evidence say about recession risk?
In a January 7, 2026 research note, the Federal Reserve Board estimated state-level recession probabilities between zero and 10 percent for 2023–2025. Most states were near zero; Massachusetts and Rhode Island were near 10 percent. The note characterized a U.S. recession during that period as unlikely and cautioned that predicting recessions in advance remains challenging.
These estimates are model findings, not official NBER dates. They also show why national conditions can mask regional weakness: low estimated risk across most states can coexist with greater stress in a few. Read the note, “Assessing Recession Risks with State-Level Data”.
The NBER chronology result available for this account lists February 2020 as the most recent U.S. business-cycle peak, consistent with the conclusion that there was no NBER-dated recession in 2025. The chronology is a record of dated business cycles, not an advance forecast.
Were recession odds being tracked in real time?
Yes. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s May 2025 Survey of Market Expectations asked respondents to assign probabilities to an NBER-defined recession, alongside questions about output, inflation and unemployment. That shows recession probabilities were part of contemporaneous market expectations, but it does not establish a single consensus probability. The survey results are available from the New York Fed’s May 2025 Survey of Market Expectations.
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What this answer does—and does not—tell you
- It answers the U.S. question retrospectively. As of October 5, 2026, the supported conclusion is that the United States did not enter an NBER-dated recession in 2025.
- It distinguishes a forecast from an outcome. The Fed’s 2025 projections were estimates made during the year, not final annual GDP, employment or inflation statistics.
- It does not establish that every household or region was doing well. National recession dating and state-level risk are different measures, and the Fed note identified relatively higher modeled probabilities in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
- It is not a global recession assessment. The evidence here concerns the United States; answering for the world would require evidence for other economies.
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