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No: the 2018 report did not find that Litecoin or Dash had displaced Bitcoin. Recorded Future’s review of 150 prominent underground message boards, marketplaces, and illicit services found Bitcoin accepted by all vendors in its sample. Litecoin was the leading alternative, followed by Dash. “Dethrone” described a forecast about the next six to 12 months, not an outcome the report had measured.
What the report actually measured
Recorded Future manually examined 150 prominent message boards, marketplaces, and illicit services in 2018. Its findings describe that sample, not every underground market or a worldwide share of cryptocurrency payments.
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All vendors in the sample accepted Bitcoin. Among vendors that implemented alternative payment methods, the reported acceptance rates were:
| Cryptocurrency | Share of vendors offering alternatives that accepted it |
|---|---|
| Litecoin | 30% |
| Dash | 20% |
| Bitcoin Cash | 13% |
| Ethereum | 9% |
| Monero | 6% |
These figures are not percentages of all vendors, all sites, or all transactions. They are the report’s figures for the subset of vendors that offered alternative payment methods. The report said vendor decisions were the primary factor determining which options were implemented. Recorded Future’s report
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Why the headline said “dethrone”
The headline compressed a prediction into a dramatic phrase. Recorded Future expected payment options to diversify and said Bitcoin might lose dominance over the following six to 12 months, while remaining important. It forecast that Litecoin and Dash would take places alongside Bitcoin; it did not report that either had already replaced it.
The report’s key judgement was: “Final results show that alongside Bitcoin, Litecoin is the second most accepted cryptocurrency, followed by Dash.” Its separate forecast said: “On the other hand, Litecoin and Dash will take their place next to Bitcoin as the everyday payment currencies of the dark web.” Those are the report’s conclusions and expectations, respectively—not evidence of what happened afterward.
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Why vendors considered alternatives
SecurityWeek’s February 13, 2018 account of the report cited complaints about Bitcoin transaction costs and delays. It said vendors sometimes waited for three confirmations and relayed the report’s claim that fees could sometimes reach 30% of a transaction’s value. That fee figure describes the report’s cited context; it should not be read as a typical or representative Bitcoin fee. SecurityWeek’s summary
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Did Bitcoin later lose its lead?
The sources cited here do not establish a current, globally comparable ranking for cryptocurrency acceptance across underground marketplaces. A later UNODC report on Southeast Asian darknet markets says Bitcoin remained the most widely used cryptocurrency in the markets it discusses. That is regional evidence with different geography, timing, and underlying data; it cannot settle the global outcome of Recorded Future’s forecast. UNODC report on Southeast Asian darknet markets
Accordingly, the 2018 percentages are historical measurements, not present-day prevalence estimates. They show that Litecoin led the alternatives in Recorded Future’s sample, while Bitcoin remained accepted across that sample.
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What “transparent” and “pseudonymous” mean here
UNODC describes Bitcoin as pseudonymous: transactions appear on a public blockchain and leave a trace that can be followed with appropriate tools. Pseudonymity does not mean that a public address automatically identifies the person using it. UNODC report on Southeast Asian darknet markets
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