Brazil could increase its grain-planted area by about 35% by converting an estimated 28 million hectares of degraded pasture—but that is a modeled opportunity, not a forecast or a change already achieved. The comparison is with the country’s 2022/23 grain-planted area, and the land would still need to meet practical, economic, legal, and environmental conditions.
What does the 35% estimate mean?
A 2024 study by Embrapa-affiliated researchers identified approximately 28 million hectares (about 69 million acres) of planted pasture with intermediate or severe degradation and good or high potential for crop production. The authors estimated that converting those areas could raise Brazil’s grain-planted area by approximately 35% relative to the 2022/23 crop season. Embrapa’s study record and the peer-reviewed article published in Land in February 2024 describe potential, not a commitment to convert all of the mapped land.
In other words, the 35% is not a guaranteed increase, an official target, or evidence that Brazil has already added that much cropland. The sources available do not establish how much of the identified potential had become cropland by October 2026; answering that would require a later, comparable land-cover analysis.
How did researchers identify the land?
The estimate is not a count of every pasture or every apparently unused parcel. The researchers combined public geospatial data to assess pasture degradation and natural suitability for agriculture, then considered contextual factors that affect whether conversion is plausible. These included Indigenous lands, quilombola settlements, conservation priorities, roads, warehouse availability, existing agricultural areas, and Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning.
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A later Embrapa multiscale analysis also used remote sensing and geographic information systems while accounting for legal and environmental constraints. Using a 2022 base year, it reported about 28 million hectares of moderately to severely degraded pasture with good-to-high conversion potential. Its largest biome-level estimate was in the Cerrado, at about 14.5 million hectares. Embrapa’s multiscale analysis record provides that later assessment.
Where might expansion happen?
The potential is unevenly distributed. The Cerrado is the largest identified biome-level opportunity in Embrapa’s later analysis, while a University of Illinois farmdoc discussion points to Center-West and Northern states as important areas for conversion potential. Neither finding means every location in those regions is suitable: parcel-level conditions and the study’s restrictions matter. The farmdoc analysis also explains that demand, commodity prices, international markets, logistics, and exchange rates affect whether land is converted.
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What are the routes to more grain production?
Pasture conversion is one route to increasing planted area. A separate route is intensifying production on land already used for crops through double cropping, including safrinha corn planted after the soybean harvest. These pathways differ in their land requirements and practical constraints; the available analyses do not establish a common quantitative cost-benefit ranking.
| Pathway | How it works | What the evidence establishes |
|---|---|---|
| Convert pasture | Use suitable degraded pasture for crops, potentially adding grain-planted area. | About 28 million hectares met the study’s stated degradation and crop-potential criteria; the 35% comparison is against 2022/23 grain-planted area. |
| Double crop | Plant a second crop, such as safrinha corn, after the main soybean harvest on existing cropland. | It is a distinct intensification pathway discussed by farmdoc; the cited analysis does not provide a directly comparable quantified cost-benefit ranking. |
Does expanding cropland mean deforestation?
Not necessarily for every conversion identified: the Embrapa mapping screens for legal and environmental constraints and focuses on planted pasture. But that screening does not prove that every eventual land-use change would be environmentally harmless, or that future agricultural growth would never involve native vegetation.
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A historical study of Brazilian cropland expansion from 2000 to 2014 found that cropland extent rose from 26.0 million to 46.1 million hectares. It estimated that 79% of the expansion occurred on repurposed pasture and 20% involved natural vegetation conversion. Those historical shares are not a forecast of what will happen next, but they show why pasture-based potential alone cannot support a blanket promise that future expansion will be deforestation-free. The historical study was published in PNAS in 2018.
What could limit conversion?
Even land that appears suitable on a map may not be converted. The farmdoc economists identify demand, commodity prices, international markets, logistics, and exchange rates as factors in the decision. The USDA Economic Research Service’s September 2022 assessment of Brazil’s agricultural growth also points to fertilizer costs, limits on credit and storage, overloaded ports and transport, and environmental pressure as headwinds. These factors help explain why mapped potential should not be treated as a near-term production forecast. The USDA assessment is dated context, not a current acreage update.
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How large is Brazil’s agricultural base?
For context, the USDA’s September 2022 assessment reported 63.5 million hectares used for crop production in Brazil. That is a dated figure, not a current acreage estimate, and it is not the denominator for the study’s 35% comparison: that comparison is specifically to grain-planted area in the 2022/23 crop season.
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