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What “China’s investment” means—and what it does not
China’s relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) includes merchandise trade, loans, direct investment and individual projects. These figures measure different activities; they should not be added together or treated as interchangeable measures of Chinese investment.
| Measure | Reported figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| China–LAC merchandise trade | $510 billion in 2024 | Trade flows, not investment. ODI reported that trade was nearly double its 2013 volume in its 2026 analysis. |
| Chinese lending disbursed to LAC countries | More than $145 billion from 2013 to 2021 | Loans, not direct investment. ODI’s 2026 analysis says more than half was non-concessional lending from China Eximbank and China Development Bank; sovereign lending peaked in 2015 and then declined. |
| China’s direct investment in Latin America | $14.71 billion in 2024 | The Chinese government’s reported direct-investment measure, reported by the State Council/Xinhua in 2025. It is not a universal total of all Chinese economic activity. |
| Total FDI inflows to LAC | $188.962 billion in 2024 | ECLAC’s regional measure. The United States accounted for 38% of invested value and China for 2% under this measure, according to ECLAC in 2025. |
| Total FDI inflows to LAC | $194.233 billion in 2025, up 1.7% from 2024 | ECLAC’s regional total in 2026. Its cited release does not give a China-specific share for 2025. |
The Chinese government’s direct-investment figure and ECLAC’s FDI shares use different reporting approaches, so they are not directly interchangeable. ECLAC also cautions that some Chinese activity can pass through third countries or take forms such as asset purchases, concessions and construction contracts that conventional FDI measures may not capture. Those differences help explain why reported totals vary; they do not establish that one measure is the definitive total.
For additional context, ECLAC reported that U.S. goods imports from LAC were $661 billion and U.S. goods exports to the region were $517 billion in 2024. Those figures cover all goods, not agricultural trade, and do not show how much either country invested.
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How Brazil’s export system connects to U.S. farm competition
Brazil is the clearest example of how production and transport capacity can affect competition for China’s agricultural market. In the first quarter of 2025, Brazil exported 16.9 million metric tons of soybeans to China, valued at $6.6 billion; China received 76% of Brazil’s total soybean exports that quarter, according to USDA. These are quarterly export figures, not an annual total.
USDA’s second-quarter 2025 transport report described Brazilian investment in rail, barge and port capacity as lowering transportation costs and improving Brazil’s competitive position. It also covered COFCO International’s investments in Brazilian agriculture and logistics, including a Santos export-terminal project. That report supplies context for the project; it does not quantify a resulting change in U.S. farm income or exports.
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Santos is in Brazil. It should not be confused with Peru’s Port of Chancay, another potential China-facing route. A Council on Foreign Relations review in 2025 described expectations that the COFCO terminal would increase Brazilian corn, sugar and soybean exports, but that was a company projection, not an independently measured outcome.
Infrastructure is only one element of Brazil’s advantage. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) identifies Brazil’s long-term expansion of soybean cultivation, growth in production-chain infrastructure, rising Chinese demand and the weak Brazilian real among the factors behind Brazil’s emergence as the top soybean exporter and its competition with the United States for China’s soybean market. The USDA analysis does not attribute Brazil’s position solely to Chinese investment.
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What USDA data show about pressure on U.S. exports
USDA’s 2024 forecasts documented near-term competitive pressure in soybean and corn shipments to China. The figures below are dated indicators, not a description of the current 2026 trade position.
| USDA reporting point | Forecast or shipment evidence | What USDA cited |
|---|---|---|
| February 2024 trade outlook | Cut the FY2024 U.S. agricultural export forecast to China by $800 million. U.S. soybean and corn shipment volumes to China in the first quarter were down 29% and 67%, respectively, year over year. | Strong soybean and corn competition from South America; Brazilian imports of both commodities surged. |
| May 2024 outlook | Cut the China export forecast by a further $1 billion. U.S. soybean and corn shipments were down 23% and 67%, respectively, year to date. | Continued Brazilian competition and surging Brazilian shipments. |
A more recent signal points to additional causes. USDA ERS reported that U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 66% from 2024 to $8.4 billion in 2025, associating the decline with reciprocal tariffs and lower U.S. soybean demand. That report does not assign the decline to Chinese investment in Latin America. Prices, demand, trade policy, currency movements, harvests and logistics can all affect export outcomes.
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What the evidence can—and cannot—say about farmers’ future
The evidence supports a specific concern: South American competition, particularly from Brazil, has put pressure on some U.S. agricultural exports to China. Lower transport costs and stronger logistics can help Brazilian suppliers compete, while expanding production and Chinese demand also matter.
It does not establish how many U.S. farms or farm jobs Chinese investment has displaced, isolate investment as the cause of export changes, or support a forecast that U.S. farmers will be sidelined for decades. Longer-term outcomes depend on conditions that can change, including investment and infrastructure, crop yields, exchange rates, prices, Chinese demand and U.S.–China trade policy. A long-range claim should therefore be treated as a risk scenario, not a demonstrated result.
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How to read the headline numbers as a U.S. farmer or household
- Check the category. Trade totals describe goods moving between countries; lending describes credit; FDI measures a particular kind of cross-border investment. A project announcement is not proof that a project is complete or has produced its projected results.
- Check the market and period. Brazil’s soybean exports to China, U.S. agricultural exports to China and all-goods trade between the United States and LAC answer different questions. A quarter, fiscal-year forecast and calendar-year total cannot be compared as though they cover the same period.
- Look for multiple causes. Competition can affect export prospects, but a reported change in U.S. exports does not by itself show whether the driver was infrastructure, tariffs, demand, prices or another factor.
- Separate regional investment from farm-level impact. A regional FDI total does not reveal which U.S. producers face lower prices or lost sales. The cited figures do not quantify a direct financial loss to individual farms.
China’s policy paper sets out stated priorities that include agricultural trade, science and technology cooperation, livestock, forestry, fisheries, aquaculture, food security, logistics and infrastructure. It is evidence of policy priorities, not proof that every priority has been implemented or caused a measurable market effect.
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