No—the “halfway” milestone is not about the original 12 million metric ton (MMT) pledge. That U.S. administration-announced goal covered the final two months of 2025 and was reported fulfilled in January 2026. The later claim that China was more than halfway to its target refers to a separate, administration-stated 25 MMT goal for 2026. The figures also measure reported purchases or sales, not necessarily confirmed deliveries to China.
Which soybean commitment does “halfway” refer to?
| Commitment | Target and period | What reporting says |
|---|---|---|
| Initial U.S. soybean purchase goal | At least 12 MMT for the final two months of 2025 | U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had completed it on January 20, 2026. USDA export-sales data cited by the Associated Press showed more than 8 MMT purchased by January 8. USDA FAS later reported the goal as met. |
| Separate 2026 target | 25 MMT for 2026, as described by U.S. administration reporting | A September 14, 2026 Bloomberg Law report, citing people familiar with the matter, put purchases for the current season close to 13 million tons—more than half the target. |
| Further stated targets | 25 MMT annually in 2027 and 2028, according to administration reporting | The underlying bilateral text confirming the targets was not available in the cited reporting; treat them as targets described by the U.S. administration. |
The 12 MMT goal should not be used as the denominator for the later “more than halfway” claim. The two figures relate to different periods and targets. The 25 MMT annual target is also reported as a U.S. administration description; the cited material did not include a direct Chinese government confirmation of either commitment.
What USDA’s export-sales figures show
The 2025 commitment
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Beijing’s March 19, 2026 report said export-sales data as of February 26 showed 10.8 MMT purchased or shipped against the initial 12 MMT goal. The report also listed 2.19 MMT sold to “Unknown” destinations. It noted that Chinese state-owned enterprises commonly use that designation, but China’s destination was unconfirmed, so that volume cannot be counted as confirmed China-bound purchases.
In January, Bessent said China had completed the 12 MMT commitment. The Associated Press also reported that USDA data showed more than 8 MMT purchased by January 8, alongside additional orders reported afterward. Those statements and figures support the reported completion, but they are not a single, fully reconciled series of confirmed shipments and arrivals.
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The 2026 marketing-year data
USDA FAS Beijing’s September 4, 2026 update said that, as of August 13, China had purchased 5.7 MMT of new-crop U.S. soybeans for marketing year (MY) 2026/27. It separately reported 3.8 MMT sold to “Unknown” destinations, which could indicate Chinese state-owned-enterprise buying but was not confirmed as Chinese demand in the report summary.
MY 2026/27 is a delivery category used in export reporting. It is not interchangeable with a calendar-year pledge tally. Keep the 5.7 MMT figure, its August 13 cutoff, and its marketing-year basis together when comparing it with the separate 25 MMT target.
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Why the reported totals differ
“Purchased,” “sold,” “shipped,” and “arrived” describe different stages or views of a transaction. USDA export-sales reporting can record sales before physical shipment or arrival, and a sale coded to “Unknown” has no confirmed destination. Administration statements can report that a commitment was completed without providing a shipment-by-shipment reconciliation.
That distinction matters when interpreting Bloomberg Law’s September 14 estimate of close to 13 million tons for the current season. The report relied on unnamed people familiar with the matter and described the amount as more than halfway to the 25 MMT target. USDA’s September 4 update, by contrast, summarized export-sales data through August 13. The reports have different cutoffs and evidence bases, and the Bloomberg estimate should not be presented as an official USDA total.
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Tariffs and competing soybean supply
USDA FAS reported that a 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans remained in place. It said commercial buyers were relying on South American origins and described record Brazilian volumes from June through August 2026, while state-owned enterprises continued U.S. purchases under the Busan agreement.
This is market context, not proof that the tariff alone explains buying patterns or market share. The reporting describes different behavior among commercial buyers and state-owned enterprises; it does not establish a single cause for China’s sourcing decisions.
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How to read the headline claims
- “China completed the 12 MMT pledge”: an attributed U.S. administration statement, later echoed in administration reporting, with USDA sales data providing a separate accounting view.
- “China bought more than half of 25 MMT”: Bloomberg Law’s September 14, 2026 estimate, based on unnamed sources, for the separate 2026 target.
- “USDA counted the purchases”: check the data cutoff, marketing year, and whether destinations are identified. A sale to “Unknown” is not confirmed as China-bound.
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