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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsIn an August 29, 2025 report, Reuters said Chinese processors might buy up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from Argentina and Uruguay in marketing year 2025/26. That was a forecast attributed to two trade sources—not a confirmed total. At the time, buyers had booked 2.43 million tons for shipment from September 2025 through May 2026. The shift reflected available South American crops and U.S.-China trade tensions, but later changes in purchases, tariffs and Chinese demand make those figures a dated snapshot.
Why China was looking to Argentina and Uruguay
Reuters reported on August 29, 2025 that China had not booked U.S. soybean shipments for the fourth-quarter 2025 shipping window, which is typically an important period for U.S. sales. At the same time, Argentina and Uruguay had bumper harvests, offering Chinese processors alternative supplies. Reuters described both the trade dispute and crop availability as relevant to the sourcing shift; neither factor alone explains the trade flow.
The supply figures cited in that report came from USDA estimates reported by Reuters. Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean harvest was estimated at 50.9 million metric tons, up from 48.2 million the year before. Uruguay’s 2024/25 output was estimated at 4.2 million tons, compared with 3.3 million a year earlier. These harvest estimates describe crop production, not the amount China bought or the amount available for export.
A Singapore-based trader at an international soybean-selling company told Reuters that having more suppliers meant China “will need less from the U.S., which will help in the trade war.” That was the trader’s interpretation of diversification, not a statement from a Chinese or U.S. government official.
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How many soybeans had Chinese buyers booked?
Reuters reported that Chinese buyers had booked 2.43 million metric tons from Argentina and Uruguay for shipment from September 2025 through May 2026. A booking is a planned cargo purchase for a specified shipment period; it is not proof that the beans had arrived in China or appeared in customs import data.
The same August 29, 2025 report said Chinese processors might buy as much as 10 million metric tons from the two countries in marketing year 2025/26, citing two trade sources. “Up to” describes a possible ceiling, not a confirmed commitment or final result. The 2.43 million tons in reported bookings and the possible 10 million-ton marketing-year total therefore have different statuses: one was booked for future shipment at the time of reporting, while the other was a forecast.
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For context, Reuters reported that China’s General Administration of Customs recorded 5 million metric tons of imports from Argentina and Uruguay combined from September 2024 through July 2025. That is a customs-import figure for an earlier period, so it should not be treated as directly equivalent to forward bookings or the subsequent marketing-year forecast.
Did China stop buying U.S. soybeans?
No lasting halt is established by the August 2025 report. It said China had not booked U.S. shipments for the key fourth-quarter 2025 window. That statement concerned bookings for a particular future shipping period, not all U.S. soybean purchases indefinitely.
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The market context changed later. USDA’s December 2025 China oilseeds update described U.S. purchases resuming in late October after a pause since May, along with subsequent tariff changes. It also reported continuing Chinese purchases from Brazil. The update said China bought at least 20 Argentine shipments—estimated at around 1.3 million metric tons—during Argentina’s temporary removal of export taxes in September 2025. Those events show why a description of buying or tariffs needs a date and scope.
Brazil also matters to the broader sourcing picture. In a Reuters report dated September 30, 2026, a senior executive at a Chinese oilseed-processing company said: “We have booked for all of October and much of November shipments from Brazil and Argentina.” The comment was about that company’s bookings, not a complete account of China’s purchases from every origin.
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What changed by September 2026?
Reuters reported on September 30, 2026 that weak animal-feed demand, negative soybean-crushing margins and high inventories were limiting near-term Chinese buying. Its sources said private processors had covered much of their needs through early February with supplies from Brazil and Argentina, as well as state reserves. The report also said soybeans were excluded from proposed tariff relief following the previous week’s Washington summit.
AgRadar Consulting founder Johnny Xiang told Reuters: “Unless margins recover, commercial buyers are unlikely to book more cargoes from overseas.” A crushing margin is the economics of processing soybeans into products such as soybean meal and oil; when the margin is negative, buying and processing additional beans may be unattractive to commercial crushers. This later account shows that supply substitution is constrained not just by tariffs, but also by inventories and the economics of processing.
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Why China’s 2025/26 import estimates differ
USDA’s December 2025 update listed three separate estimates for China’s soybean imports in marketing year 2025/26. They came from different sources and should not be presented as observed totals or blended into one number.
| Estimate source | China 2025/26 soybean imports | Status |
|---|---|---|
| CASDE, as listed by USDA in December 2025 | 95.8 million metric tons | Estimate |
| Private sources, as listed by USDA in December 2025 | 97.5 million metric tons | Estimate |
| FAS/China, as listed by USDA in December 2025 | 106 million metric tons | Estimate |
These national import estimates cover a different measure from the Argentina-Uruguay forecast. They do not establish how much of China’s total came from either South American country, nor whether the August 2025 forecast for those suppliers was ultimately reached.
How to read a soybean-sourcing headline
Trade headlines can describe distinct events that are easy to conflate. To understand what a reported number says, check:
- Origin: whether the cargo is from Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, the United States or another supplier.
- Status: whether the figure is a forecast, a booking, a shipment, an arrival or a customs-recorded import.
- Timing: the marketing year or shipment and arrival dates. A marketing-year estimate is not automatically a calendar-year total.
- Policy date and scope: which tariffs or trade restrictions applied when the cargo was contracted or shipped. The reports describe changes over time, not one fixed tariff regime.
- Commercial conditions: harvest availability, delivered prices, processor inventories, feed demand and crushing margins. These affect whether buyers can source and whether processing the beans makes economic sense.
For the August 2025 story, the defensible takeaway is narrow: Reuters reported a possible large Argentina-Uruguay sales total and 2.43 million tons already booked for a stated shipment window amid trade tensions and abundant South American harvests. Later policy shifts and weaker buying conditions show why that dated snapshot cannot be used as a current booking position or as proof of the final outcome.
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