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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallBrazil’s projected soybean exports of 14 million metric tons for January–February 2026 did not match the later official tally: Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) reported 9.0 million metric tons for those two months. The 14-million-ton figure was a preliminary schedule-based forecast reported by Reuters on February 8, not the realized export total. At the same time, three consultancies estimated that farmers had sold less of the expected 2025/26 crop than their respective comparison benchmarks.
What the February forecast said—and what exports totaled
On February 8, 2026, Reuters reported that preliminary shipping schedules from Brazil’s National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) pointed to 14 million metric tons of soybean exports in January and February combined. The estimate reflected scheduled shipments, not a final customs tally. Reuters report syndicated by Successful Farming, February 8, 2026.
MDIC’s consolidated trade series, updated October 6, 2026, subsequently reported 1.9 million metric tons exported in January and 7.1 million in February, or 9.0 million combined. That official total is 5.0 million metric tons below the earlier estimate. The available figures do not explain the gap, so it should not be attributed to any particular cause. MDIC consolidated trade statistics.
| Measure | January–February 2026 | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Anec estimate reported by Reuters | 14 million metric tons | Preliminary schedule-based forecast reported February 8, 2026. Reuters report. |
| MDIC reported exports | 9.0 million metric tons (1.9 million in January; 7.1 million in February) | Official reported trade data in a series updated October 6, 2026. MDIC statistics. |
How slow were farmers’ crop sales?
Reuters’ February report cited three consultancy estimates for sales or sales commitments against expected 2025/26 production. Their percentages are not a single like-for-like ranking: each firm used its own stated comparison.
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| Consultancy | Estimated share sold or committed | Stated comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Safras & Mercado | 33.9% | 10 percentage points below its historical average |
| Hedgepoint Global Markets | 35% | 5 percentage points below the prior year |
| Celeres | 38% | 5 percentage points below average |
These were estimates reported in February 2026, not final measurements of the amount ultimately sold. Their different benchmarks also mean the percentages should not be treated as directly comparable performance measures. Reuters report syndicated by Successful Farming.
Why sales were slow while shipments were expected to be high
Reuters attributed the slower farmer selling pace to three market pressures: a stronger Brazilian real, high freight costs, and abundant supply weighing on Chicago futures prices. These factors could make producers less willing to sell at prevailing returns even as export schedules pointed to substantial near-term movement. The report described market conditions at that time; it does not establish that each factor alone determined sales.
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The report offered a local price example from Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso: soybeans were trading at 100 reais per bag, 10% below the year-earlier level. That was a February 2026 reported price, not a current quote or a national price average. Reuters report, February 8, 2026.
Why a late selling rush could create risks
Safras & Mercado analyst Rafael Silveira warned, as summarized by Reuters, that slow sales could leave a larger volume to move later. In that scenario, concentrated demand for transport and export capacity could create logistical bottlenecks, push freight costs higher, and widen price discounts. These were identified risks, not confirmed outcomes.
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What later 2026 export data shows
The MDIC series updated October 6, 2026, lists 100.2 million metric tons of soybean exports from January through September 2026, 6.7% more by quantity than in the corresponding period of 2025. September was the latest month available in that series; it does not establish a final full-year 2026 total. MDIC’s open-data documentation identifies Comex Stat as the source of its trade data and also states that the detailed data then available ran through September. MDIC open-data documentation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Harvest expectations were forecasts, not final production
Reuters’ February report described an expected record 2025/26 soybean harvest of 180 million metric tons, about 10 million tons above the previous season. That figure was a forecast at the time, not a verified final harvest result. Reuters report syndicated by Successful Farming.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
