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Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos says investors have become too pessimistic about fixed-income assets, in part because they may be underestimating the possibility that an AI-related shock could send investors seeking the relative safety of bonds. That is a market scenario, not a forecast that an AI bust will happen or a recommendation to buy bonds.
What Deutsche Bank says investors may be missing
In a report published by Bloomberg Law on October 9, 2026, Greg Ritchie attributed the view to George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of FX research: negative sentiment toward fixed-income assets “has gone too far.” Saravelos’s counterpoint is that markets may be underpricing a possible rush into bonds if an AI-related blowup unsettles investors. The report does not give a probability or timing for that scenario, or a yield or price target. Read the Bloomberg Law report.
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Why some investors are bearish on bonds
The report describes concerns raised in Saravelos’s US client meetings that AI was a “big driver of higher yields” and that the US Treasury had “lost control of the long-end.” Those phrases describe concerns reported from meetings; they are not established findings or an official Treasury statement.
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In that same account, speculation that 20-year Treasury issuance could be suspended was part of the discussion. It was investor speculation, not an announced Treasury decision. The excerpt does not provide further evidence or detail to establish the claim that Treasury has lost control of long-term borrowing costs or supply.
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How an AI shock could point in the opposite direction
The two views involve different possible outcomes. If AI-related investment and financing concerns contribute to higher long-term yields, that can weigh on existing bond prices. But if an AI-related shock prompts investors to seek bonds, stronger demand could support bond prices and put downward pressure on yields. This is the counter-scenario Saravelos says investors may be underpricing; the report does not establish that it will occur.
| Question | Bearish concern described in the report | Saravelos’s counter-scenario |
|---|---|---|
| What happens with AI? | AI is seen by some clients as a driver of higher yields. | An AI-related blowup could unsettle investors and prompt a rush into bonds. |
| What happens to Treasury supply? | Clients raised uncertainty about long-term Treasury supply, including speculation about 20-year issuance. | The excerpt does not state how Treasury issuance would respond in this scenario. |
| What happens to bond demand and yields? | The concerns are associated with higher yields and a bearish view of fixed income. | A rush into bonds could support prices and lower yields; no magnitude is given. |
What the report does—and does not—establish
The same excerpt says clients were overwhelmingly bearish on French debt, but it cuts off before explaining that discussion. It therefore does not support a fuller account of the reasons for their view or a specific conclusion about French bonds.
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- The reported argument is Saravelos’s market view, not an official Treasury position.
- The available excerpt gives no probability, timeline, yield forecast, price target or named statistic for an AI-related shock or bond-market response.
- It records client concerns and a possible counter-scenario; it does not establish which market outcome will occur.
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