ASML lifted its 2026 sales forecast to €43 billion–€45 billion after reporting second-quarter results on July 15, 2026. The higher outlook points to stronger near-term demand for chipmaking equipment, which ASML attributes to AI investment and customer plans to expand advanced logic and memory capacity. It does not mean trade uncertainty has gone away: the company continues to flag export restrictions, licensing and geopolitical conditions as risks. ASML’s third-quarter results were scheduled for October 14, 2026, so the figures below reflect information available through its Q2 release.
What ASML’s 2026 guidance says
ASML’s July 15 forecast calls for full-year 2026 net sales of €43 billion–€45 billion and a gross margin of 54%–56%. These are forward-looking ranges, not reported results. The upward revisions during the year have been substantial:
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
| Release date | 2026 net-sales outlook |
|---|---|
| January 28, 2026 | €34 billion–€39 billion |
| April 15, 2026 | €36 billion–€40 billion |
| July 15, 2026 | €43 billion–€45 billion |
The ranges are ASML’s forecasts in its January, April and July 2026 results releases. They show a rising company outlook, not a guarantee that sales will land at the top of the range.
What ASML reported, and what it forecast
ASML reported Q2 2026 net sales of €9.326 billion, a gross margin of 54.0% and net income of €2.918 billion. The company said sales and margin came in above its guidance, primarily because Installed Base Management sales were higher than expected. Those completed-quarter results are distinct from the full-year forecast.
#1 Best Overall
For Q3 2026, ASML forecast net sales of €11.0 billion–€12.0 billion and gross margin of 55%–57%. Those numbers were guidance, not Q3 results. ASML’s results calendar scheduled the Q3 release for October 14, 2026, shortly after 07:00 CET; no Q3 outcome is established by the July release or the calendar listing.
Why management raised the outlook
ASML linked its stronger outlook to continuing AI-related investment, demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers accelerating capacity plans and strong order intake in the first half of 2026. CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the July 15 Q2 release: “Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry’s growth outlook.” That is management’s explanation of the demand environment, not independent proof that every customer plan will turn into orders or shipments.
The wider company context includes €32.7 billion in 2025 net sales, €9.6 billion in 2025 net income and a €38.8 billion year-end backlog, as reported in ASML’s January 2026 results release. Backlog is an indicator of contracted business, but it is not the same as revenue already earned or a guarantee of when orders will be fulfilled.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsCapacity plans point to opportunity—and execution demands
To respond to anticipated demand, ASML said it planned to increase 2027 capacity for low-NA EUV tools by 30% relative to a 2026 level of around 65, and DUV immersion capacity by 30% relative to around 130 in 2026. It was also investigating another 30% increase in each category for 2028. These are company plans and investigations, not delivered capacity or confirmed production totals.
A planned ramp can support sales only if manufacturing, suppliers, customer demand and delivery schedules align. Timing matters: order intake may precede recognized revenue, and a capacity plan is not evidence that all planned tools will ship on schedule. ASML’s release describes the intended increases but does not establish the precise shipment timing or output those plans will produce.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why higher guidance does not settle the trade question
ASML continues to list shipment restrictions, export-control changes, licensing, trade conditions and geopolitical developments among uncertainties that could affect its business. In its April Q1 release, it said the 2026 guidance range accommodated possible outcomes of ongoing export-control discussions. The July increase therefore shows that ASML raised its forecast while those risk categories remained relevant; it does not show that restrictions have had no effect.
The company’s general risk language does not specify current country-by-country rules, the outcome of individual license decisions or the quantified sales impact of any particular restriction. Readers should not infer a specific market’s access to ASML tools, or a dollar or euro impact, from the broad risk disclosures alone.
Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
Quick Recap
Best Value
What investors and chip-trade watchers should watch next
- Guidance versus results: Compare reported quarterly sales and margins with the forecast ranges, keeping actual performance separate from management’s projections.
- Order conversion and timing: Strong first-half order intake supports the demand case, but the disclosures cited here do not quantify when all orders will become shipments or revenue.
- Capacity execution: Track whether planned 2027 increases become realized manufacturing and deliveries; the 2028 additions remain under investigation.
- Trade and licensing developments: Watch for company updates or specific regulatory information. ASML’s disclosures identify these as risks but do not quantify the effect of individual controls.
- The next reported update: ASML’s calendar listed Q3 2026 results for October 14, 2026, shortly after 07:00 CET. The calendar is available at ASML’s quarterly results page.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
