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ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook for the second time this year after stronger-than-expected installed-base revenue and continued AI investment lifted demand for advanced chipmaking capacity. The July 15, 2026 update also includes a planned expansion of EUV and DUV production capacity.
What ASML changed in its 2026 outlook
ASML’s July 15, 2026 second-quarter release lifted its 2026 total-net-sales guidance to €43 billion–€45 billion. That is the company’s third range for the year and a substantial increase from the range issued after its 2025 results.
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| Date | 2026 sales guidance | Midpoint | Stated context |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 28, 2026 | €34 billion–€39 billion | €36.5 billion | Issued with FY2025 results |
| April 15, 2026 | €36 billion–€40 billion | €38 billion | Semiconductor outlook solidifying as AI infrastructure investment increased |
| July 15, 2026 | €43 billion–€45 billion | €44 billion | Higher-than-expected Installed Base Management sales and stronger demand visibility |
The latest midpoint is €6 billion above April’s midpoint and €7.5 billion above January’s. ASML also gave a 54%–56% gross-margin range for 2026.
What ASML reported in the second quarter
Second-quarter 2026 total net sales were €9.3 billion. Gross margin was 54.0% and net income was €2.9 billion. ASML identified higher-than-expected Installed Base Management sales as the main reason the quarter and outlook exceeded its earlier expectations.
Why Installed Base Management matters
Installed Base Management covers services, upgrades, spare parts and other support for lithography systems already operating in semiconductor factories. Strong revenue from this business indicates that customers are actively running and expanding production on equipment they have installed, rather than relying only on new-system deliveries. It also helped ASML raise its near-term sales expectation while demand for new systems continues to build.
How AI investment increases demand for ASML equipment
ASML does not manufacture AI processors. It sells lithography systems used by chipmakers to pattern circuits on silicon wafers. The company’s stated demand chain is that ongoing AI-related investment and progress in AI technologies are increasing demand for advanced logic and memory chips. Chip manufacturers then need additional fab capacity and more sophisticated lithography tools, which increases demand across ASML’s product portfolio.
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“Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry’s growth outlook,” said Christophe Fouquet, ASML’s president and chief executive officer.
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That makes ASML an indirect beneficiary of AI spending: its revenue depends on the capital-equipment purchases made by chip manufacturers, not on selling AI software or processors itself.
Is the AI-driven demand sustainable?
ASML reported that order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of 2026. It also said customer commitments across its portfolio increased visibility into longer-term demand. Those are stronger signals than a single quarter of shipments because customers are making capacity plans that extend beyond immediate delivery dates.
They are not a guarantee that every forecasted euro will be recognized. ASML’s guidance remains a company projection and can change if customer schedules, factory build-outs or semiconductor-market conditions change. The most persuasive evidence for durability is the combination of strong orders, multi-year customer commitments and ASML’s decision to expand manufacturing capacity.
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ASML’s planned capacity response
ASML said it planned to add 30% to 2027 capacity for two important product groups, using its approximate 2026 output as the baseline.
| Product group | Approximate 2026 capacity | 2027 plan | 2028 status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low-NA EUV systems | About 65 systems | Increase capacity by 30% (approximately 85 systems if the baseline is unchanged) | Another 30% increase is being investigated, not committed |
| DUV immersion systems | About 130 systems | Increase capacity by 30% (approximately 169 systems if the baseline is unchanged) | Another 30% increase is being investigated, not committed |
The approximate output figures in the 2027 column are arithmetic illustrations of the stated 30% increase; actual production can differ. Low-NA EUV is used for the most advanced manufacturing layers, while DUV immersion remains important across a broad range of logic and memory production.
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How large is the improvement over ASML’s 2025 base?
ASML reported FY2025 sales of €32.7 billion, net income of €9.6 billion and a year-end backlog of €38.8 billion. Compared with those sales, the new 2026 guidance implies approximately 31.5% growth at the €43 billion low end and 37.6% growth at the €45 billion high end. These percentages compare the new guidance range with the reported FY2025 sales figure; they are not a new company forecast.
The backlog provides context for the company’s visibility, while the second-quarter results show how installed systems are contributing today. Together with strong first-half orders, they explain why ASML is expanding capacity rather than treating the AI surge as a short-lived spike.
What investors should watch next
- Order intake: whether the exceptionally strong first-half pace continues across EUV, DUV and service activities.
- Installed Base Management sales: whether the second-quarter strength persists as customers operate more systems.
- Gross margin: whether results remain within or above the 54%–56% 2026 guidance range.
- Capacity execution: whether the planned 2027 additions can be delivered without delaying customer systems.
- Customer commitments: whether longer-term reservations translate into firm deliveries and recognized revenue.
For now, the message is clear: AI-related spending is expanding the market for advanced logic and memory, and ASML is responding with higher guidance and more planned production capacity. The sustainability question will be answered by future orders, deliveries and margin performance rather than by AI enthusiasm alone.
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