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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallThe 2023–24 El Niño episode became a major upside risk in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) inflation outlook. The central bank repeatedly raised its 2024 projection as drought and heat threatened food and electricity prices, then made a small downward revision when newer data showed weaker near-term pressures. The episode also produced an uneven path: inflation was expected to sit inside the 2%–4% target range briefly in early 2024 before moving above it from April through July.
What “Godzilla El Niño” meant for the BSP outlook
“Godzilla El Niño” was vivid shorthand for the unusually disruptive 2023–24 El Niño, not a separate official inflation category. For the BSP, the weather pattern was an upside supply shock: it could reduce agricultural output, raise food costs and increase electricity expenses. Those effects threatened to delay the return of inflation to the central bank’s medium-term target of 2.0% to 4.0%.
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Weather was only one part of the forecast problem. Transport-fare changes, global crude-oil prices, wage adjustments, the peso and the statistical effects of comparing prices with a high or low base all changed the projected path.
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| Forecast round | 2023 average | 2024 average | Change from prior round | Weather and other factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2023 | 5.5% | 2.8% | Initial figures in this sequence | BSP warned that El Niño could push food and electricity prices above its baseline. |
| August 2023 | Not stated in the cited round | 3.3% | Up from 2.8% | El Niño’s potential effect on food prices and power rates was listed as an upside risk. |
| November 2023 | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2023 up from 5.6%; 2024 up from 3.3% | Higher-than-expected inflation, near-term estimates, an approved transport-fare increase, moderate El Niño and higher global crude prices. |
| February 2024 | Not stated in the cited round | 3.6% | Down from 3.7% | Lower recent inflation, peso appreciation and lower crude prices outweighed part of the continuing El Niño and wage-adjustment risks. |
The sequence shows why the episode unsettled the forecast rather than producing one fixed estimate. In August, the 2024 projection rose by half a percentage point from the May baseline. By November it had risen another 0.4 point, while the 2023 estimate was lifted to 6.0% from 5.6%. In February 2024, the 2024 estimate was trimmed to 3.6% as incoming information reduced some pressures.
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How El Niño can feed into prices
Food supply
Drought and extreme heat can constrain domestic crop supply. When less food reaches markets, prices can rise even without stronger overall demand. Because food is a large and frequently purchased household expense, a weather-driven increase can quickly affect perceived inflation.
Electricity and utilities
Weather can affect both power demand and supply conditions. Higher demand during hot periods, combined with supply constraints, can add to electricity costs. The BSP therefore treated power rates as a separate channel through which El Niño could push inflation above its baseline.
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Transport and crude oil
Transport costs can compound a food shock. The November 2023 report specifically cited an approved transport-fare increase and global crude-oil prices alongside moderate El Niño as reasons for the upward revisions. Fuel and fares also affect the cost of moving goods through the economy.
Second-round effects
An initial increase in food, power or transport prices can influence wage demands, service prices and inflation expectations. These secondary effects are harder to time than the original weather event, which is why the BSP treated them as risks to the forecast path rather than as a single one-month change.
Base effects
Year-on-year inflation compares current prices with prices a year earlier. A low comparison base can make the annual rate jump even if month-to-month pressure is easing; a high base can temporarily suppress it. Base effects did not create the supply shock, but they changed when it appeared in the published inflation rate.
Why inflation could move above target after briefly returning to it
The BSP’s November 2023 report described an uneven profile rather than a smooth decline. It said inflation could “temporarily settle within the target in Q1 2024 due to negative base effects” and then “accelerate above the target range from April to July 2024 due to the impact of El Niño weather conditions and positive base effects.”
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That distinction matters because an annual forecast is an average. A 3.7% estimate for 2024 could still be consistent with several months above 4.0% if other months were lower. The November baseline also placed 2025 inflation at 3.2%, inside the target band, indicating that the bank viewed the shock as disruptive but not necessarily permanent.
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The move from a 3.7% to a 3.6% 2024 forecast was not a declaration that El Niño had ended. The BSP cited lower recent inflation, a stronger peso and lower crude prices as offsets, while still identifying El Niño and wage adjustments as upward pressures. Forecasts therefore changed as observed prices, exchange rates, energy markets and weather information changed.
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For readers, the practical lesson is to treat a forecast as a conditional path, not a promise. A weather shock can raise the cost of essentials even while other forces pull the annual average down.
What Philippine households should watch
- Food prices: drought-related supply disruptions can show up quickly in grocery and market bills.
- Electricity: heat-related demand and supply conditions can affect monthly utility costs.
- Transport: approved fare changes and fuel prices can raise commuting and delivery expenses.
- Wages and services: second-round adjustments can keep inflation pressure elevated after the first food or energy shock.
- Monthly inflation releases: the timing of base effects can make the annual rate look better or worse than the underlying month-to-month trend.
Keeping those categories separate in a household budget helps distinguish a temporary price spike from a broader, persistent increase. It also explains why the BSP continued updating its projections instead of treating the “Godzilla” episode as a fixed outcome.
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