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On January 26, 2026, AgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop to 181 million metric tons, from 180.4 million, and its estimate for total corn output to 136.6 million metric tons, from 136 million. The figures describe AgRural’s January outlook—not an October forecast.
What AgRural revised in January
| Crop | AgRural estimate on January 26, 2026 | Previous estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | 181 million metric tons | 180.4 million metric tons | Up 0.6 million metric tons |
| Total corn | 136.6 million metric tons | 136 million metric tons | Up 0.6 million metric tons |
Reuters reported that AgRural said, “Expectations for a bumper crop remain across the country.” The revisions raised both forecasts by 0.6 million metric tons; they do not mean the two crops had the same previous or final output.
What the January crop-progress figures showed
AgRural’s accompanying progress snapshot was also from late January. As of the Thursday before January 26, Brazil had harvested 4.9% of its soybean crop, compared with 2% a week earlier and 3.9% at the same point a year before.
In the center-south, second-crop corn planting had reached 4.7% of estimated area, while first-crop corn harvest was 5% complete. A year earlier, the corresponding figures were 2.2% planted and 8.6% harvested. These are crop-progress measures, not production estimates, and they should not be read as October conditions.
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Why Rio Grande do Sul was a weather watchpoint
AgRural flagged hot, dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul and said the situation “needs to be monitored closely,” as Reuters reported. That was a weather qualification attached to the January outlook; it does not establish the state’s conditions later in the season.
How the September Conab estimates compare
Conab’s September 15, 2026, 12th survey offers later context, but it is a separate publisher’s estimate—not a revision to AgRural’s January figures.
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| Measure | AgRural, January 26, 2026 | Conab, September 15, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Soybean production | 181 million metric tons | 180.4 million metric tons |
| Corn production | 136.6 million metric tons total | 144 million metric tons across three crops |
| Total grain production | Not stated in Reuters’ report of AgRural’s January update | 361.7 million metric tons |
Conab’s corn figure explicitly covers three crops, so it is not directly interchangeable with AgRural’s total corn estimate. Conab described its soybean estimate as a record in its series, 5.2% above the prior cycle; it attributed the increase to area up 2.7% and productivity up 2.5%. Its total grain estimate was 0.3% above its August estimate, with second-crop corn yields exceeding expectations.
For the January AgRural revisions and progress figures, see Reuters’ January 26, 2026 report. Conab’s later figures are reported in its grain survey material.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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