In Farm Journal’s October 2024 survey, more than half of 70 agricultural economists said the U.S. agriculture economy was in recession, and 75% said it was on the brink. Those are economists’ survey opinions—not an official declaration that the entire farm sector met a single recession test. A later survey found a different, narrower result: in September 2025, 91% said the crop sector was in recession. Neither figure establishes the overall consensus today.
Is the U.S. ag economy in a recession?
The answer depends on the date, the part of agriculture being assessed, and how each respondent defines recession. In an October 22, 2024 report on Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, more than half of 70 surveyed economists said the U.S. agriculture economy was already in recession. Separately, 75% said it was on the brink, up from 56% in the preceding month’s survey. “Already in recession” and “on the brink” are distinct responses, not interchangeable descriptions.
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The survey was anonymous, and the sources do not establish that its respondents were a probability sample representing all agricultural economists. Its percentages should therefore be read as reported panel sentiment, not as an official economic measurement. The reporting also does not establish a single formal recession definition used by every respondent.
Why economists reached different answers
Respondents were weighing different signals and different definitions of a sector-wide downturn. Some focused on the sharp squeeze between crop prices and production costs, weaker exports, global oversupply, and financial pressure on highly leveraged or cash-rent-heavy farms. Others argued that those stresses did not describe the whole farm economy.
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- Profitability and financial pressure: A bad year, or multiple years of low returns, can feel recessionary to farms whose income does not cover costs or debt obligations. Purdue agricultural economist Michael Langemeier explained his own 2024 answer this way: “I define a recession as this is one of the worst years we’ve seen in the last 20. So my short answer to the question is yes. Just looking at where the price is currently at, this is about the worst year since 2007, which was the start of the ethanol boom,” as quoted in Tyne Morgan’s report.
- Strength outside crops: Other respondents pointed to healthy balance sheets at some operations, off-farm income, diversification, higher land values, and positive livestock returns. They described cattle and dairy as doing better relative to hogs and crops, making a single verdict about all of agriculture harder to support.
- Different definitions: One respondent may view a particularly poor year against recent history as a recession; another may require a broad, sustained decline across farm types and indicators. A September 2025 respondent, anonymous in the report, said: “Multiple years of low to no profitability qualifies as a recession to me.” That is one respondent’s standard, not a definition adopted by the survey as a whole.
Farm income expectations were also weakening. James Mintert, principal investigator of the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, said in the October 2024 report: “The continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025.” That comment describes concern about income expectations; it is not itself a formal recession determination.
What the September 2025 crop-sector result does—and does not—show
Farm Journal’s September 2025 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor produced a stronger figure for a narrower question: 91% of respondents said the U.S. crop sector was in recession, according to Pro Farmer’s September 26, 2025 report. This is not directly comparable to the October 2024 figure about the overall U.S. agriculture economy. Crops are only one part of agriculture, and the later result does not prove that livestock or every farm operation shared the same conditions.
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The 2025 report also records dissent: some respondents pointed to cropland prices and rents that had not weakened, and to government payments. Those indicators can coexist with severe operating-margin pressure for crop producers; they reflect different dimensions of farm finances rather than settling the question by themselves.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How current is the recession assessment?
The October 2024 overall-economy figures and September 2025 crop-sector figure are historical survey results. The Farm Journal Monitor page identifies July 2026 as its latest report, but the page reviewed does not provide a current overall-agriculture recession share. It would be misleading to present either older percentage as the October 2026 consensus or to combine the figures into a new estimate.
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For a personal-finance reader, the practical distinction is between a broad sector label and the cash-flow condition of a particular farm household. The survey captures economists’ views about the sector; it does not determine an individual farm’s profitability, ability to service debt, or need for a financial decision. Those depend on that operation’s costs, revenues, debt, rents, and sources of income.
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Sources and survey context
- Successful Farming / Agriculture.com, “Ag Economy is in a Recession, Says Majority of Ag Economists” (October 22, 2024)
- Pro Farmer / Farm Journal, “Survey High: 91% of Ag Economists Say Crop Sector in Recession, Losses Likely Through 2026” (September 26, 2025)
- AgWeb / Farm Journal, Ag Economists Monthly Monitor
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