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In its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank kept its projection for India’s growth in fiscal year 2025/26 at 6.3 percent, the same figure it had set in April 2025. The forecast covered April 2025 through March 2026. It is now a historical projection rather than a current one: the Bank’s October 6, 2026 update already projects 7.1 percent growth for FY2027.
What the 6.3% figure measures
The number is a fiscal-year forecast, not a calendar-year one. The World Bank defines FY2025/26 as April 2025 to March 2026, and the 6.3 percent refers to real GDP growth over that twelve-month span. It is a projection made at a specific point in time, so it should always be cited with its publisher, its report date, and the fiscal year it covers.
The June 2025 report put it this way in its South Asia chapter: “India is projected to maintain the fastest growth rate among the world’s largest economies, at 6.3 percent in FY2025/26 (April 2025 to March 2026; table 2.5.2).” This is an institutional statement by the World Bank, not an attributed quotation from an individual economist.
Why the June 2025 report kept 6.3%
The forecast had already moved down before June. In its January 2025 projection, the Bank had a higher figure for India’s FY2025/26 growth. The April 2025 South Asia Development Update lowered it to 6.3 percent, a 0.4 percentage-point cut, and also projected that growth would slow from 6.5 percent in FY2024/25. The June report then left the April estimate unchanged rather than cutting it again.
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The April explanation attributed the slowdown to global economic weakness and policy uncertainty, which the Bank expected to offset the benefits of monetary easing and regulatory streamlining. The June report kept that framing and pointed to two channels:
- Exports: weaker economic activity in key trading partners and rising global trade barriers were expected to dampen export growth.
- Investment: heightened global policy uncertainty was expected to slow investment growth.
These are the Bank’s explanations for its forecast, not a definitive account of what drove India’s actual growth. A forecast that is held unchanged between two editions reflects the institution’s judgment that the balance of risks had not shifted enough to justify a revision, not a finding that the economy was performing exactly as expected.
How the forecast moved across editions
The table below lists the World Bank India projections cited in this article. Each row is a separate data vintage, so the changes should be read only within the same fiscal year.
| Publication | Fiscal year | Projected growth | Change and context |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2025 Global Economic Prospects | FY2025/26 | Not stated in the sources reviewed | 0.4 percentage point above the April figure; the April update lowered it |
| April 2025 South Asia Development Update | FY2025/26 | 6.3% | Down from 6.5% projected for FY2024/25 |
| June 2025 Global Economic Prospects | FY2025/26 | 6.3% | Retained the April estimate |
| April 2026 South Asia Development Update | FY2027 | 6.6% | Forecast for the year beginning April 2026 |
| October 6, 2026 update | FY2027 | 7.1% | Raised from the April 2026 figure; supported by robust domestic demand and strong exports |
Why 6.3% is no longer the current forecast
The October 2026 update moved the outlook to FY2027, so the 6.3 percent figure now describes a year that has already ended. The Bank attributed its 7.1 percent projection to domestic demand and exports, and it flagged several external risks that could make growth more volatile:
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- global oil prices
- El Niño weather effects
- stock-market corrections that could cause capital-flow volatility
Anyone quoting the June 2025 figure today should say that it is a 2025 forecast for a fiscal year that has closed. Presenting it as the Bank’s present view of India’s economy would misstate the record.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Reading forecast comparisons correctly
Forecast numbers are easy to misuse when they are compared across sources or dates. Before drawing a conclusion from two figures, check the following:
- Publisher and edition: confirm whether the figure comes from the Global Economic Prospects or the South Asia Development Update, and the month it was released.
- Fiscal year: confirm the year being projected. India’s fiscal year runs April to March, so FY2025/26 is not the same as calendar 2025 or 2026.
- Type of figure: distinguish a forecast from a later estimate and from an observed GDP result. These are different data vintages.
- Revisions: compare revisions only within the same institution’s forecasts, and quote the change in percentage points.
- Cross-institution comparisons: check fiscal-year definitions, data vintages, and assumptions before setting one institution’s figure against another’s.
What is not established yet
The sources reviewed for this article do not establish a harmonized, final figure for India’s realized FY2025/26 GDP growth. The 6.3 percent number is therefore a forecast, not the outcome, and a later World Bank projection should not be used as a stand-in for the actual result. For the official measured figure, check India’s national accounts release, which reports the growth that actually occurred.
The verdict is straightforward: the World Bank did retain 6.3 percent for FY2025/26 in June 2025, after lowering it in April, and that figure is now a historical forecast. The current World Bank projection for India is 7.1 percent for FY2027, from its October 6, 2026 update.
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