Probably not across the board. Deere’s August 2026 outlook points to continued weakness in North American large-agriculture equipment demand, even as the company says it expects 2026 to mark the bottom of the current equipment cycle. USDA’s September forecast is more mixed: inflation-adjusted net farm income is projected to fall, while nominal net cash farm income is forecast to edge up. Equipment sales and farm income measure different things, so neither forecast alone settles how every farm will fare.
What does Deere’s 2026 outlook say?
In its August 20, 2026 third-quarter release, Deere reported net income of $1.379 billion, compared with $1.289 billion a year earlier. Quarterly net sales and revenues were $12.608 billion, up 5% year over year. Deere also forecast fiscal 2026 net income attributable to the company of $4.75 billion to $5.00 billion. Those are company results and guidance, not a direct measure of farmers’ profitability.
For fiscal 2026, Deere forecast U.S. and Canadian industry sales to vary sharply by market:
| Market measure | Deere’s fiscal 2026 outlook |
|---|---|
| North American large-agriculture industry sales | Down 15% to 20% |
| North American small-agriculture and turf industry sales | Flat to up 5% |
| North American construction-equipment industry sales | Up 5% to 10%; compact construction equipment up about 5% |
These industry estimates are not the same as Deere’s own segment-sales forecasts. Deere separately projected Production & Precision Agriculture net sales down about 10%, Small Agriculture & Turf net sales up about 15%, and Construction & Forestry net sales up about 20% for fiscal 2026. A company’s segment sales and total industry sales are different measures; the percentages should not be treated as interchangeable. Deere’s August 20, 2026 results and outlook.
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Why Deere calls 2026 a possible bottom
CEO John C. May said Deere continued to believe 2026 would mark the bottom of the current agricultural-equipment cycle. He cited early-order-program trends, improving used-equipment inventories, and customer adoption of advanced technologies. This is management’s view of the equipment cycle—not a guarantee that sales will recover in a particular quarter, nor a forecast of farm income.
Will farm income rise in 2026?
USDA’s Economic Research Service forecast, updated September 3, 2026, gives a more nuanced answer than a simple “up” or “down.” For calendar 2026, the agency projected net farm income of $158.4 billion, down $4.3 billion (2.6%) from 2025 in nominal dollars and down $9.1 billion (5.5%) after inflation. It projected net cash farm income of $176.4 billion, up $0.7 billion (0.4%) from 2025 in nominal dollars but down $4.6 billion (2.5%) after inflation. These are USDA forecasts, not final results. USDA ERS’s September 2026 farm-income forecast.
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The measures differ. Net cash farm income counts cash receipts and cash farm-related income, including government payments, minus cash expenses. It excludes noncash items such as inventory changes and economic depreciation, which are included in net farm income. A small nominal increase in net cash farm income therefore does not mean the same thing as an increase in inflation-adjusted income or in net farm income.
Average income does not describe every farm
USDA forecast average net cash farm income per farm business at $121,700 for 2026, up 7.1% from 2025 in nominal terms. For this measure, USDA defines farm businesses using gross cash farm income and the operator’s primary occupation. The average is not a prediction for every farm household or operation.
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The outlook also varies by location and specialization. USDA expects average farm-business net cash income to rise in nominal terms in six of its nine Farm Resource Regions. Crop-specialized farm businesses are generally forecast higher, except specialty-crop businesses, while animal and animal-product specializations are forecast lower in net farm income. National figures can conceal these differences.
Why equipment demand and farm income can diverge
Equipment sales are a signal about purchases in particular markets; farm-income statistics estimate sector-wide income using different components and time periods. A weak outlook for large-ag equipment does not establish that every farm’s income will fall. Nor does a slight nominal increase in net cash farm income establish a broad recovery in machinery demand.
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For a useful comparison, keep the measures and dates separate:
- Period: Deere’s outlook is for its fiscal 2026 and North American equipment markets; USDA’s income forecast is for calendar 2026.
- Measure: Deere reports industry sales and its own segment net sales; USDA estimates farm income.
- Inflation: USDA’s nominal changes exclude inflation adjustment, while its real changes account for it.
- Market: Deere’s large-ag outlook is weaker than its outlook for small ag and turf or construction; farm-income projections vary by region and farm type.
- Forecast date: Deere issued its cited outlook in August; USDA updated its income forecast in September.
Which forecast should readers use?
Use USDA’s September 2026 forecast when asking about the current national farm-income outlook, and Deere’s August guidance when asking about agricultural-equipment demand and the company’s expected results. USDA’s February 2026 long-term projection is an earlier forecast vintage, not the latest near-term estimate: it put 2026 net farm income at $183.3 billion and net cash farm income at $184.8 billion. The September update instead projected $158.4 billion and $176.4 billion, respectively. These projections were made at different times and should not be blended as if they were one current forecast. USDA’s February 2026 Agricultural Projections to 2035.
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For readers focused on machinery, Deere’s 2025 annual report provides earlier fiscal 2026 outlook context and discusses market factors; the August 2026 release is the later cited update. Deere’s 2025 Annual Report.
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