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Not yet. As of October 11, 2026, the September U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has not been released, so it cannot have settled the Federal Reserve’s remaining rate decisions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the report for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The Fed has signaled that another increase could be appropriate before year-end, but its timing and whether it happens remain open questions.
What is known—and what is still pending?
On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12–0 to raise its federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. In its statement that day, the Committee said, “Inflation remains elevated.” It also said the policy action would support a timelier return to its 2% goal.
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That was the latest adopted rate decision reflected in the official sources available as of October 11. The September CPI report was still forthcoming. The BLS’s scheduled release time is October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, according to its release calendar and August CPI release. No September inflation result—or resulting change in the Fed’s policy path—can be treated as known at this point.
Why might the September CPI report matter?
The report will provide a new reading on consumer-price inflation, including headline CPI and core CPI. Those figures can inform the Fed’s assessment of inflation, but CPI and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index are distinct measures. The Fed’s stated 2% inflation goal and its economic projections discussed below use PCE inflation, not CPI. The sources available do not establish how a particular September CPI result would translate into PCE or determine a specific rate decision.
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The report is therefore a potentially relevant signal, not a mechanical trigger. A single release may affect the evidence officials weigh, but the September data and the Committee’s response to them were both still in the future on October 11.
What do the Fed’s projections say about inflation and rates?
The Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections showed higher median 2026 projections than its June edition. The inflation figures are fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter changes; the federal funds rate figure is the median of participants’ individual projections for the rate at year-end.
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| Median projection | June 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 PCE inflation | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| 2026 core PCE inflation | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Federal funds rate at year-end 2026 | 3.8% | 4.1% |
Core PCE excludes food and energy. These are projections by individual participants based on their assessments of appropriate policy and assumptions about other factors. They are not a binding FOMC promise or a guaranteed forecast of the eventual rate. The Fed cautions that considerable uncertainty attends the projections.
Have officials signaled another rate increase?
Yes, but a possibility is not a decision. The Associated Press’s account of the September meeting minutes reported that most officials considered another increase likely appropriate by year-end. That is reporting about officials’ views, not an adopted policy commitment.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, in remarks covered by Axios on October 8, said that if economic data continued to come in as expected, he anticipated additional hikes to support a timely return to the 2% inflation goal. He also said there was flexibility about when they would occur and that increases did not need to come at consecutive meetings. His comments support a data-dependent outlook, not a fixed date for a move.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could happen after the CPI release?
The available evidence leaves at least two broad possibilities for the remaining decisions:
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- The Fed raises the range again. A further increase remains possible, and officials have been reported as seeing one as potentially appropriate by year-end. The September CPI result alone cannot establish that this will happen.
- The Fed holds the range steady. Officials may weigh the CPI report alongside other incoming data and their policy deliberations. Waller’s remarks indicate that the timing of any increase is flexible; the cited sources do not settle whether or when the Committee will move.
The September projections add context to these possibilities but do not choose between them. In particular, the 4.1% median year-end rate projection is not a promise that the FOMC will raise rates to that level.
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What should readers watch for?
- The BLS release: The September CPI report is scheduled for October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Until publication, its inflation figures are unknown.
- How officials interpret the evidence: CPI is one inflation measure, while the Fed’s goal and the projections above are expressed in PCE terms. The cited sources do not provide a formula that turns a CPI result into a rate decision.
- The distinction between a signal and a commitment: A published CPI result will add information; only an FOMC decision establishes the target range. The September increase is adopted policy, while another year-end increase remains a possibility reported in meeting coverage and reflected in one official’s conditional remarks.
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