Abiove forecast in April 2025 that Brazil would export more soybeans to China that year, citing both U.S.-China trade tensions and a soybean harvest expected to approach 170 million metric tonnes. That was a forecast, not a confirmed year-end result—and it was not based on tariffs alone. Later estimates show how quickly trade assumptions can change.
What Abiove forecast for 2025
On April 24, 2025, Daniel Furlan Amaral, then Abiove’s director of economics and regulatory affairs, said Brazil expected to ship more soybeans to China amid trade tensions between the United States and China. Abiove also expected Brazil to export more soybean meal to established markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. These are different products and destination markets: the forecast did not describe soybean meal shipments to China.
Amaral pointed to two factors behind the expected growth: a Brazilian soybean harvest approaching 170 million metric tonnes and the possibility that trade tensions would shift demand toward Brazilian supplies. Reuters reported his remarks, including his warning that the tariff situation was changing too often to measure the trade-war effect confidently. Read Reuters’ April 24, 2025 report republished by Agriculture.com.
The harvest figure was an expected crop size, not the amount Brazil would necessarily export. Harvest estimates and export volumes measure different things; they should not be treated as equivalent.
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Why the trade-war effect was uncertain
Tariffs can change the relative appeal of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans to Chinese buyers, but the effect depends on more than tariff rates. The available 2025 statement does not quantify how many additional tonnes the trade dispute itself would redirect to Brazil. Amaral described the outcome as difficult to measure while tariff policy was fluctuating.
- Policy: Changes in tariffs can alter sourcing incentives, but uncertainty makes it difficult to forecast their effect in advance.
- Supply: Brazil’s large expected harvest provided a separate basis for higher exports, whether or not trade tensions shifted demand.
- Chinese inventories: Stock levels can affect how much China needs to import at a given time.
- Relative prices: The prices and premiums for Brazilian and U.S. soybeans influence buyers’ choices.
- Timing and measurement: A forecast is not the same as a booked shipment or a completed export.
What happened in a later trade-war episode—and what it does not prove
Brazil has benefited from an earlier U.S.-China trade dispute. In its June 2025 Monetary Policy Report, Banco Central do Brasil said Brazil gained soybean export volume and a higher price premium in China during the 2018 dispute. Brazilian soybean exports to China increased by nearly USD 7 billion in 2018 compared with 2017, according to the report.
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- Nutrient-Rich Snack: soy beans deliver sweet nutty flavor and buttery texture; boil or freeze for soy-protein snacks, soy bean seeds to plant are ideal for survival gardening fans seeking clean non gmo edamame.
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The same report puts the scale of the bilateral trade in context: in 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China were USD 13 billion, while Brazilian soybean exports to China were USD 31 billion. These are dollar values for 2024, not tonnage figures and not a forecast of what the 2025 trade tensions would produce. The central bank also noted that China had since increased its soybean inventories, one reason the 2018 outcome cannot be assumed to repeat. See Banco Central do Brasil’s June 2025 Monetary Policy Report.
How later figures changed the outlook
A September 18, 2026 Reuters report illustrates why the April 2025 forecast needs a date attached to it. Reuters reported that Abiove reduced its 2026 soybean export projection by 400,000 tonnes, to 115 million tonnes, after China intensified purchases from the United States. In the same report, Anec data put China’s share of Brazil’s soybean exports at 70% for January through August 2026. That is a share for those eight months, not a figure that can be applied to every month or year.
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The report also put Abiove’s 2026 soybean-processing projection at a record 63.5 million tonnes. These 2026 projections and shipment data do not revise the 2025 statement: they concern a different year and reflect a later market outlook. The export projection is not a confirmed final total. Read Reuters’ September 18, 2026 report republished by Investing.com.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where to check Brazil’s export data
Abiove says its monthly soybean-complex and corn export report is updated by its Economics and Statistics Coordination using Ministry of Economy/Comex Stat data. Its reporting dimensions include trading partners, volume, revenue, and ports. This is useful for checking realized trade flows, but it is distinct from a forecast or an attributed quotation. Abiove’s statistics page describes its monthly export reporting.
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