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In its June 2025 outlook, USDA lowered its forecast for U.S. corn ending stocks in both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years. The newer-crop forecast fell by 50 million bushels to 1.8 billion, mainly because USDA raised its 2024/25 export forecast, leaving less corn to carry into 2025/26. The acreage and yield forecasts were unchanged.
What USDA changed in the June 2025 corn outlook
“Old crop” refers to the 2024/25 marketing year; “new crop” refers to 2025/26. USDA lowered its 2024/25 ending-stocks forecast by more than the trade had expected, according to Successful Farming’s June 12, 2025 recap. The cited passage does not give the revised old-crop stocks figure, so it cannot be stated here.
For 2025/26, USDA cut its ending-stocks forecast by 50 million bushels, to 1.8 billion. It also raised the 2024/25 export forecast by 50 million bushels. The recap says that higher exports lowered beginning stocks for 2025/26, while projected use for that year was otherwise unchanged. USDA left corn area and yield forecasts unchanged.
How higher old-crop exports lower new-crop ending stocks
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly outlook for U.S. and global supply and use of major crops. A marketing year’s ending stocks are the projected inventory remaining after supply and use are accounted for. Those stocks become the next marketing year’s beginning stocks, or carry-in.
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- More 2024/25 exports: USDA raised its forecast of corn exports by 50 million bushels.
- Less carry-in: With more corn forecast to leave the country in 2024/25, less remained to carry into 2025/26.
- Lower 2025/26 ending stocks: With use assumptions unchanged, the lower beginning-stock figure flowed through to a 50-million-bushel reduction in the ending-stocks forecast, to 1.8 billion.
USDA’s June 2025 report described the new-crop outlook as “little changed from last month, with lower beginning and ending stocks.” The revision therefore reflected the balance-sheet connection between marketing years, not a change to the 2025/26 acreage or yield forecast.
What the stocks figures do—and do not—say about markets
The June 2025 revision was a forecast adjustment, not proof of a lasting shortage or a prediction of a particular corn-price move. At the time, Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor at Total Farm Marketing, called the report “largely neutral, as expected.” Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, described the initial market response as limited and the report as “kind of a non-event.” Those were advisers’ contemporaneous views, not USDA conclusions or current market guidance.
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How later reports changed the context
Later figures refer to different reporting periods and should not be confused with the June 2025 WASDE forecast. USDA NASS’s September 30, 2026 Grain Stocks release measured old-crop corn physically on hand as of September 1, 2026. USDA’s September 2026 WASDE, by contrast, was a forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year.
| Report and date | What it measured or forecast | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 WASDE, as recapped June 12, 2025 | Forecast ending stocks for 2025/26 after the revision | 1.8 billion bushels, down 50 million |
| USDA NASS Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026 | Old-crop corn physically on hand September 1, 2026 | 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from September 1, 2025 |
| USDA NASS Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026 | September 1, 2026 stocks held on farms and off farms | 787 million bushels on farms; 1.31 billion off farms |
| USDA NASS Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026 | Indicated June–August disappearance | 3.20 billion bushels in 2026, versus 3.09 billion in the same period a year earlier |
| September 2026 WASDE, as recapped by Successful Farming | Forecast 2026/27 ending stocks | About 1.6 billion bushels, down 86 million |
| September 2026 WASDE, as recapped by Successful Farming | Forecast 2026/27 yield | 178.5 bushels per acre |
The NASS numbers are measured stocks at a specified date; they are not WASDE ending-stocks forecasts. NASS also reported revisions to prior-season corn production, which were down less than 1%.
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The September 2026 WASDE recap reported production of 15.8 billion bushels for 2026/27, lower supply and domestic use, and unchanged exports. The 178.5-bushel-per-acre yield estimate and approximately 1.6-billion-bushel ending-stocks forecast were September estimates, not October results.
In an October 8, 2026 analysis, University of Arkansas Extension agricultural economics program associate Scott Stiles said the 2.095-billion-bushel September 1 stocks figure would become adjusted 2026/27 beginning stocks in the upcoming October WASDE. He also noted it exceeded the analyst expectation cited in the article. These were pre-release observations: USDA’s October 2026 WASDE was scheduled for October 9 at noon Eastern and had not yet been released as of October 8. The USDA WASDE page describes the reports and lists the release schedule.
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How to compare corn balance sheets without mixing unlike figures
When comparing successive WASDE reports, identify the marketing year first, then check each part of the balance sheet:
- Beginning stocks: How much inventory carries into the marketing year?
- Production assumptions: Did USDA change acreage or yield?
- Use: Did domestic use, exports, or total use change?
- Ending stocks: What remains after projected supply and use, and how did the estimate move from the prior report?
- Estimate versus expectation: How does the USDA figure compare with trade expectations, where a source reports them?
When comparing WASDE with a Grain Stocks report, label one as a forecast and the other as measured inventory, and include the stock date. The available June 2025 recap establishes that the old-crop forecast was below trade expectations but does not provide the numeric revised figure in its cited passage.
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