U.S. soybean futures jumped on Aug. 11, 2025, after President Donald Trump publicly asked China to quadruple its orders. The move reflected traders’ hopes for stronger demand or trade progress—not a confirmed Chinese purchase. Reuters reported the most-active Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contract rose 2.4% to $10.11-1/4 per bushel that day; the request itself did not establish that China agreed to buy more.
How much did soybean prices rise?
On Monday, Aug. 11, 2025, Reuters reported that the most-active CBOT soybean contract gained 2.4% to $10.11-1/4 per bushel after Trump’s appeal. S&P Global reported that the November contract rose 23.75 cents to 1,011.25 cents per bushel in the same session. These are two source-specific descriptions of that day’s futures move, not separate rallies.
Cash export prices also moved higher, but they measure something different. S&P Global assessed September-shipment free-on-board (FOB) New Orleans soybeans at $405.37 per metric ton, up $8.72 from the prior day. That export assessment is not the CBOT futures quote.
What did Trump ask China to do?
In a post reproduced by S&P Global, Trump wrote: “China is worried about its shortage of soybeans,” then said he hoped China would “quickly quadruple its soybean orders.” He also described larger purchases as a way to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and addressed Chinese President Xi Jinping. The wording is attributed to S&P Global’s reproduction; an official archived copy of the post was not independently available in the reporting cited here.
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The post was a public request, not an export contract or confirmation of a sale. Reuters reported that it was unclear whether China had made any commitment as a condition of extending the tariff deadline. A White House official told Reuters Trump had signed an executive order extending that deadline by 90 days.
Why did futures respond to a request?
Traders priced in a possibility, not a completed deal
Futures prices reflect expectations about future supply and demand. A sudden appeal for substantially more Chinese buying could lead traders to anticipate stronger U.S. export demand or progress in trade talks. The Aug. 11 rise shows the market reacted to that possibility; the available contemporaneous reports do not establish that the post alone caused the move or that a purchase followed.
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The tariff deadline added trade-policy uncertainty
The request came as a tariff-truce deadline approached, making the prospect of Chinese purchases part of a wider trade story. The reported 90-day extension reduced immediate deadline pressure, but it did not itself demonstrate that China had committed to buying the requested volume.
Why was quadrupling U.S. orders a difficult prospect?
China had other major suppliers
Reuters reported that China imported roughly 105 million metric tons of soybeans in the prior year, with just under one-quarter coming from the United States and most of the remainder from Brazil. A shift large enough to quadruple U.S. shipments would therefore require a major change in sourcing. Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting, told Reuters: “It’s highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soybeans from the U.S.”
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Price competitiveness matters in that choice. Iowa farmer Gary Vetter told Reuters, “They’re going to go to their cheapest producer.” S&P Global’s contemporaneous market reporting said Chinese buying interest had shifted to South American-origin beans, underscoring that a political request did not automatically make U.S. soybeans the preferred supply.
China’s processing market also mattered
China imports soybeans largely to crush them into soymeal for livestock feed. Reuters reported that Chinese soymeal futures fell 0.65% to 3,068 yuan per metric ton on Aug. 11, amid expectations that additional U.S. imports could add supply. The report also described an existing soymeal glut that could constrain demand. A larger import volume would not necessarily be attractive if it worsened that supply balance.
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Shipment demand figures were a dated snapshot
S&P Global reported that, as of Aug. 5, 2025, industry sources said all 8.5 million metric tons of open demand for September shipment had been covered, while 41% of 8.3 million metric tons of October shipment demand had been covered. These figures describe demand coverage reported at that time, not a current market position. The same report quoted market participants who disputed that China faced a soybean shortage.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What later developments do—and do not—show
Later announcements and sales reports should be kept separate from the August 2025 price reaction. Reuters reported in August 2026 that the White House had announced a Chinese commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through the end of 2028. Reuters also reported USDA confirmation of nearly half a million tons of Chinese purchases on Aug. 3, 2026, while noting the market was watching whether China would remove tariffs so private crushers could participate. An announced annual commitment is not proof that every stated volume has been purchased, and these later developments do not establish that the 2025 quadrupling request was fulfilled.
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Separately, Bloomberg Law reported that USDA recorded 272,000 tons of soybean sales to China for delivery in the 2026–27 marketing year on Sept. 10, 2026, plus 340,000 tons reported the previous day. Reuters reported on Sept. 24, 2026, that China’s 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans remained in place; it also said China had taken about half of U.S. soybean exports in recent years, down from nearly two-thirds before Trump first entered the White House.
An intervening S&P Global report dated Oct. 1, 2025, described a separate 1.8% futures rise after Trump said China was avoiding purchases “for negotiating reasons only.” That report said export inspections were 23% lower year over year at that point and China had made no bookings from the then-current crop year. Those figures are specific to that 2025 snapshot, not a description of the 2026 market.
Quick Recap
Sources
- Reuters, Aug. 11, 2025: soybean futures reaction, trade context and market commentary
- S&P Global, Aug. 11, 2025: November futures, export assessment and reproduced post
- Reuters, Aug. 2026: White House-announced annual purchase commitment and reported buying
- Reuters, Sept. 24, 2026: tariff status and U.S. farm-group concerns
- Bloomberg Law, Sept. 2026: USDA-reported sales for 2026–27 delivery
- S&P Global, Oct. 1, 2025: separate futures move and dated export snapshot
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