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Re:

Why U.S. Home Prices Are Still Rising Despite High Rates and Weak Sales

FHFA’s July index showed U.S. home prices rising while NAR reported weaker August existing-home sales. The measures differ, and constrained supply may help explain the divergence.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read
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U.S. home prices were still rising in the latest available national data, even as existing-home sales fell and mortgage rates climbed. The most plausible explanation is a squeeze between rate-sensitive demand and limited supply: high borrowing costs can keep buyers from closing, while too few available homes can prevent broad price declines. The figures show that these trends coincide; they do not prove how much either factor caused the price movement.

As of October 9, 2026, the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly price data covered July, while the latest National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) existing-home sales report covered August. Those measures describe different parts of the market, so they should not be read as contradictory.

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What the latest figures show

Measure Latest reported result What it measures
FHFA U.S. house-price index, July 2026 Up 0.3% from June and 2.6% from July 2025 Changes in home prices using a seasonally adjusted, purchase-only repeat-sales index based on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac data. FHFA, September 29, 2026
NAR existing-home sales, August 2026 Down 2.0% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million; down 1.2% from August 2025 An annualized pace based on completed sales, not a measure of home prices. NAR, September 10, 2026
NAR median existing-home price, August 2026 $429,100, up 1.6% from August 2025 The midpoint price of homes sold that month; it can shift with the mix of homes sold. NAR reported 38 consecutive months of annual median-price gains. NAR, September 10, 2026
Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage-rate average reported by AP 7.40% for the week reported October 8, 2026, after seven weekly increases A time-specific weekly average, not a rate guaranteed to an individual borrower. AP, October 8, 2026

The timing matters: FHFA’s next monthly release, covering August, was scheduled for October 27, after the October 9 cutoff. NAR’s September existing-home report was scheduled for October 13, also after that cutoff.

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Why prices can rise while fewer homes sell

Sales and prices answer different questions

Sales volume counts how many transactions close, while a price measure tracks what homes sell for or how prices change. Higher mortgage costs can cause some buyers to delay, withdraw, or decide they cannot afford a purchase. That can reduce completed sales without requiring the homes that do sell to become cheaper.

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The two price figures also differ. FHFA’s repeat-sales method follows price changes for homes with repeat transactions, which helps track price movement over time. NAR’s median is simply the midpoint of the prices in that month’s sales. If the mix of homes sold changes—for example, toward more expensive properties—the median can rise even if prices for comparable homes do not rise by the same amount. Neither statistic should be substituted for the other.

Limited choice can support prices

There were 1.62 million existing homes for sale in August, 5.9% more than a year earlier, equal to 4.9 months of supply, according to NAR. More listings give buyers additional options and, as NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun put it, “better opportunities to negotiate.” But year-over-year inventory growth does not by itself mean there is an excess of homes in every market or price range. If available homes remain scarce relative to buyers who can proceed, competition for those listings can continue to support prices.

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That supply-and-demand explanation is consistent with the reported numbers, but the cited statistics do not estimate how much of the price trend was caused by supply, rates, or other factors. NAR’s Yun said high mortgage rates were consistent with a mild dip in buying activity; the sales and rate figures show the same broad pattern, not a measured causal effect.

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The national picture masks regional differences

National averages can obscure sharply different local conditions. FHFA’s July year-over-year price changes ranged from 0.6% in the Mountain region to 6.3% in the Middle Atlantic region. NAR’s August median sale prices ranged from $340,400 in the Midwest to $619,100 in the West. These regional figures come from different measures—an index change versus a transaction median—so they show geographic variety, not a like-for-like ranking of regional price growth. FHFA; NAR

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What the other national measures add

Quarterly FHFA index

FHFA’s broader quarterly measure showed prices up 2.1% from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, and up 0.3% from the first quarter of 2026. It offers a longer-period check on the monthly index, but does not change the distinction between price movement and sales activity. FHFA, August 25, 2026

New-home sales

The joint HUD/Census July estimate put new-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000, down 10.5% from June, with 9.6 months of supply. The estimated median new-home price was $393,800, but the confidence intervals for monthly and annual median-price changes included zero, so those changes were not statistically distinguishable from no change. HUD and Census caution that the survey is subject to sampling variability, preliminary sales can be revised, and four months of data are needed to establish a trend. New homes are a separate market from existing-home resales, and one month’s estimate is not enough to establish a durable price direction. HUD/Census, August 25, 2026

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How to read this if you are buying or selling

  • If you are buying: a rising national index does not tell you whether a particular home is fairly priced. Compare recent sales of similar homes in the same area and account for the monthly payment at the loan terms available to you. The national weekly rate is a benchmark, not a personal quote.
  • If you are selling: national price gains do not guarantee that a home will sell quickly or at the asking price. Local inventory, comparable sales, property condition, and the number of active buyers matter.
  • If you are tracking the market: keep the statistic and its period attached to the claim. An index change, a median sale price, an annualized closing pace, and months of supply answer different questions.

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