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What happened to gas prices in April 2024?
AAA reported a U.S. average of $3.56 per gallon on April 4, up three cents from the prior week, 21 cents from a month earlier, and six cents from a year earlier. The average reached $3.67 on April 18, then fell to $3.65 on April 25. Those weekly figures show a broader spring increase, not a steady climb.
The causes worked together: crude oil was more expensive, refineries were producing less gasoline than usual, and refiners were shifting to summer-grade fuel. Demand also changed from week to week, so it was not a simple or continuous source of upward pressure.
Why did crude oil add pressure at the pump?
Crude oil is a major input to gasoline production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says crude accounted for 56% of the cost to produce a gallon of gasoline in March 2024. That is a production-cost share, not an exact breakdown of the April retail price. AAA separately described oil as roughly 60% of what consumers paid at the pump; the figures use different wording and accounting bases.
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In its April 2024 outlook, EIA reported that Brent crude rose 20%, from $76 per barrel on January 2 to $91 on April 5. Middle East tensions—including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel-Iran military actions—raised concerns about possible supply disruptions. Voluntary OPEC+ production cuts also put pressure on global inventories and crude prices. These risks contributed to higher oil prices; they did not guarantee a particular move in gasoline prices.
AAA’s April 4 report noted that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $85.43 per barrel on April 3 and attributed elevated oil prices to overseas supply concerns. AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross said, “Renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure and increasing tension in the Middle East spiked oil prices recently.”
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How did refinery problems and inventories affect gasoline supply?
Refineries turn crude oil into gasoline, so reduced operations can tighten the supply of finished fuel even when crude is available. EIA reported that U.S. refinery utilization fell 11% from early January, reaching 81% in the weeks ending February 9 and 16. Reduced operations in the Midwest and Gulf Coast reflected cold-weather problems, planned maintenance that began early, and the unplanned shutdown of BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana.
AAA’s April 4 report, citing EIA data for the latest reported week, said domestic gasoline stocks fell by 4.2 million barrels to 227.8 million barrels. The same report said gasoline demand rose from 8.72 million to 9.23 million barrels per day in that week. A drop in inventories can leave less fuel available to absorb a production disruption or a short-lived demand increase.
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EIA’s April outlook also revised its inventory expectations: it lowered expected end-of-period motor gasoline stocks for the second quarter by almost 7 million barrels compared with its March outlook, and expected inventories to average about 4 million barrels below its prior forecast through 2024. These were forecasts made in April, not final inventory results. EIA attributed the outlook to lower refinery production and higher net exports.
Why does the seasonal switch to summer gasoline matter?
Gasoline is formulated differently across the year. Summer gasoline must be less prone to evaporating in warm weather, and EIA says it requires more expensive components to produce. The spring transition therefore adds a cost pressure as refiners change production to meet seasonal specifications.
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Driving patterns can add another seasonal influence. EIA says U.S. gasoline prices have historically tended to rise in spring and peak in late summer as driving increases. For context, across 2004–2023, average U.S. retail regular gasoline prices in August were about 40 cents per gallon higher than January averages. That long-run comparison is not a measurement of the summer-fuel effect in April 2024.
Demand was not uniformly strong during the month. AAA reported a weekly increase in demand in its April 4 update, but described demand as lackluster on April 18. The seasonal pattern helps explain why spring can bring upward pressure; it does not mean demand rose every week in April.
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Why did prices dip late in the month?
Several market forces can pull in opposite directions. On April 18, AAA said the national average had risen four cents to $3.67 even though demand was lackluster and oil had fallen several dollars from its recent high. Gross said the period between spring breaks and Memorial Day can bring a lull in gasoline demand, so prices may move by small amounts, hold steady, or dip. By April 25, AAA reported a two-cent decline to $3.65, citing subdued domestic demand and retreating oil costs.
Why could your local price differ from the national average?
A national average does not predict what drivers pay in a particular city or state. Local prices reflect supply and demand, transportation and refining connections, state fuel specifications, and taxes. EIA says West Coast prices are often higher because the region is less connected to other refining centers, local supply can be tight, several states have higher-than-average taxes, and California’s specifications can cost more to meet. Gulf Coast prices are usually lower because the region has more than half of U.S. refining capacity and produces more gasoline than it consumes.
For a dated regional illustration, EIA reported May 20 averages of $4.62 per gallon on the West Coast and $3.11 on the Gulf Coast. Those are May figures, not April prices.
What did forecasters expect for 2024?
EIA’s April 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast an average U.S. retail gasoline price of about $3.60 per gallon for 2024. It was a forecast made during April, not the final annual result.
Sources: AAA, April 4, 2024; EIA, April 2024 gasoline-price analysis; EIA, refinery operations and inventories; EIA, April 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook; EIA, factors affecting gasoline prices; AAA, April 18, 2024; AAA, April 25, 2024.
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