The U.S. Department of Defense continued the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program in July 2024 after estimating that a reasonably modified version would cost $140.9 billion—81% more than its September 2020 Milestone B estimate. The decision was conditional: DoD revoked the program’s prior approval and ordered a restructuring rather than letting it proceed unchanged.
What the 81% increase means
The figure comes from a January 2024 notice to Congress that Sentinel had exceeded its baseline cost projections, triggering a critical breach under the Nunn–McCurdy Act. In its July 8, 2024 review, DoD reported that its Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office (CAPE) estimated a reasonably modified program at $140.9 billion, an 81% increase over the estimate at Sentinel’s September 2020 Milestone B decision. The DoD release does not state the 2020 estimate in dollars, so the percentage cannot be reliably translated here into a specific dollar increase. DoD’s July 8, 2024 announcement
This is a comparison between two program estimates, not a statement that Sentinel is 81% over all money appropriated for it or that $140.9 billion is a final bill. It is also a dated estimate: the announcement described the outlook at the time of the review.
Why DoD allowed the program to continue
A critical Nunn–McCurdy breach generally requires termination unless the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment certifies that statutory continuation criteria are met. DoD made that certification for Sentinel. Its stated rationale included the importance of the land-based leg to the nuclear triad and avoiding a capability gap as the planned replacement for Minuteman III is developed. Those are DoD’s reasons for continuing the program, not an independent finding that Sentinel is the least-cost choice.
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What changed with the approval
DoD rescinded Sentinel’s Milestone B approval and directed the Air Force to restructure the program to address the causes of cost growth and improve cost control. William A. LaPlante, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment and the program’s Milestone Decision Authority, said the program would be restructured to address the breach’s root causes and put an appropriate management structure in place to control costs. In other words, the decision was to continue under new conditions, not to approve the earlier plan without changes.
Where the cost growth was concentrated
DoD attributed most of the growth to the command and launch segment. That includes launch facilities and centers, along with the work, time, staffing, and facilities needed to transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel. This matters because the reported overrun was not described as a uniform increase across every part of the missile system.
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What was known about the schedule
In July 2024, DoD said a delay of several years was then estimated. That is the schedule outlook reported with the review, not a verified current completion forecast. The cited announcement does not establish the present status of the Air Force’s restructuring, a later cost baseline, or a current delivery date.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How separate nuclear-project overruns differ
A February 2026 Government Accountability Office assessment reported that 28 National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) major construction projects were estimated collectively to cost more than $30 billion. Across 16 projects in the execution phase, cumulative overruns were $4.8 billion and cumulative schedule delays were 30 years as of June 2025. These are portfolio figures for NNSA construction projects, not Sentinel costs; they should not be added to or used as a comparison for the Sentinel estimate. GAO-26-107777, published February 26, 2026
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