December 2024 CBOT corn futures closed at $4.24¾ per bushel on Monday, September 30, 2024, up 6¾ cents for the day. The contract rose after USDA reported September 1 corn stocks below the average analyst expectation reported by Pro Farmer—even though stocks were still 29% higher than a year earlier.
What happened to December corn futures on September 30?
The December 2024 CBOT corn futures contract settled at $4.24¾ per bushel, a gain of 6¾ cents from the previous session, according to Pro Farmer’s September 30 market recap. The publication described the close as a monthly and quarterly high.
This was a price for a specific futures contract, quoted in dollars per bushel. It was not a local elevator cash bid or a price every farmer received. Another contemporary recap displayed the close rounded to $4.24; the more precise quoted figure is $4.24¾.
What did USDA report for corn stocks?
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Grain Stocks report on September 30. It estimated that 1.76 billion bushels of old-crop corn were held in all positions on September 1, 2024. The reference date is September 1; September 30 was the report’s release date. The USDA report is the source for the official estimates and definitions: Grain Stocks, September 2024.
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Stocks were below expectations, but above the prior year
Pro Farmer reported an average analyst expectation of 1.844 billion bushels for September 1 stocks. The USDA estimate was therefore 84 million bushels below that reported expectation. The expectation was an analyst consensus as reported by Pro Farmer, not a USDA forecast.
At the same time, the 1.76-billion-bushel estimate was 29% higher than stocks on September 1, 2023. “Below expectations” describes the difference from the pre-report market estimate; it does not mean corn stocks were lower year over year.
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Where the corn was held
Of the September 1 total, USDA estimated 780 million bushels stored on farms and 980 million bushels stored off farms. These are the report’s storage-location categories, not separate measures of total supply.
Quarterly disappearance was higher
NASS reported indicated disappearance of 3.24 billion bushels during June–August 2024, compared with 2.74 billion bushels during the same three months a year earlier. “Indicated disappearance” is a USDA quarterly balance-sheet measure; it should not be treated as a synonym for exports alone.
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Why did corn futures rise?
Contemporaneous market coverage attributed the positive reaction to the stocks figure coming in below the reported analyst expectation. A smaller-than-expected inventory estimate can be interpreted by traders as tighter supply than anticipated, supporting futures prices. In this case, that market interpretation coexisted with stocks that were still substantially higher than a year before.
The report gives the official inventory estimate, but it does not prove that the report alone caused the futures move. The price recap records the close and the market’s contemporaneous explanation; it does not establish that the move lasted or signaled a lasting trend.
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What was the next market uncertainty?
Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, pointed to uncertainty about forecast rain in Brazil as a factor to watch. He said: “There’s still some concern about if the rain that is in the forecast about a week from now will actually develop.” This was a contemporaneous concern about a forecast, not a report of what weather later occurred.
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