USDA’s February 2025 long-term baseline projects U.S. corn, soybean and wheat farm prices to remain below their recent 2021/22–2022/23 peaks, then rise modestly over the following years. It does not establish that all three will return to “pre-pandemic” levels: that comparison depends on the chosen benchmark year, inflation adjustment and price measure.
What does USDA forecast for corn, soybean and wheat prices?
USDA’s February 2025 Agricultural Projections to 2034 gives nominal U.S. season-average farm prices in dollars per bushel. These are baseline projections, not guaranteed prices.
| Crop | 2025/26 projection | Later projection |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $3.90 per bushel | $4.30 from 2029/30 through 2034/35 |
| Soybeans | $10.00 per bushel | $10.00 through 2027/28, then gradually rising to $10.45 in 2034/35 |
| Wheat | $5.80 per bushel | $6.00 from 2028/29 through 2034/35 |
The report’s broad assessment is that nominal prices for crops other than rice are expected to rise modestly through 2034/35, starting from levels well below recent peaks in 2021/22 and/or 2022/23. That describes a retreat from the post-2020 spike followed by a gradual increase; it is not a forecast that prices will match a specific pre-pandemic year.
Will corn prices go back to pre-pandemic levels?
The cited USDA baseline does not make that comparison, so it cannot verify a return to pre-pandemic corn prices. It projects corn at $3.90 per bushel in 2025/26 and $4.30 from 2029/30 through the projection period. To assess “pre-pandemic,” a comparison would need to specify a reference year and use the same kind of price series and dollars for both periods.
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USDA links the longer-run corn price increase to global demand growth. In its baseline, yield gains raise production despite a small decline in acreage; feed use and exports grow, with corn exports projected to increase 19.8 percent over the period.
Why are grain prices projected below recent peaks?
The baseline reflects assumptions about production, use, trade and stocks, rather than a single cause shared by every crop. For soybeans, USDA points to high U.S. stocks as an early source of price pressure, followed later by declining ending stocks. It also projects expanded U.S. crush capacity as demand for soybean oil grows, while Brazil’s share of global soybean exports increases and the U.S. share declines.
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For wheat, the report records a nominal U.S. farm price of $8.83 per bushel in 2022/23 and estimates $5.70 for 2024/25. It projects the price at $5.80 in 2025/26 and $6.00 from 2028/29 onward, with U.S. wheat exports rising from 850 million bushels in 2025/26 to 950 million in 2034/35.
How should you interpret these price projections?
- They are farm prices. The figures are U.S. season-average farm prices, not grocery prices, daily local cash bids or futures quotes.
- They are nominal dollars. The projections are not inflation-adjusted, so they should not be treated as a measure of purchasing power over time.
- They are conditional baselines. USDA’s estimates depend on assumptions about acreage, yields, production, use, trade and other factors. Weather, policy, trade changes or supply and demand shocks can lead to different actual prices.
- They have a defined forecast vintage. The figures above come from USDA’s February 2025 long-term baseline. A shorter-horizon USDA outlook is a different forecast product and should not be blended with it.
How does USDA’s shorter-term outlook differ?
USDA’s separate 2025/26 Grains and Oilseeds Outlook projects a $10.00 soybean farm price and a $5.50 wheat farm price for 2025/26. It describes ample global soybean supplies as a source of continued price pressure and notes higher U.S. wheat supplies and ending stocks. Its wheat figure differs from the long-term baseline’s $5.80 estimate for the same marketing year; the two values belong to separate reports and forecast vintages.
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What “pre-pandemic levels” would need to mean
A defensible comparison needs to identify the reference year, whether prices are nominal or adjusted for inflation, and whether the measure is a season-average farm price, a local cash-market price or a futures price. Without those choices and matched historical series, “pre-pandemic levels” is too vague to confirm for corn, soybeans and wheat as a group.
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