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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsIn November 2020, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that U.S. agricultural exports would reach $152 billion in fiscal 2021 and that China would buy $27 billion of them, making it the largest foreign market again. Those were forecasts—not final results—and the ranking was not a lasting one.
What the 2020 forecast said
Successful Farming reported on November 24, 2020, that USDA projected $152 billion in U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal 2021, which began October 1, 2020. The forecast put Chinese purchases at $27 billion. USDA said China was projected to become the top U.S. agricultural export market again after last holding that position in FY2017. Successful Farming’s November 2020 report quoted the agency’s statement.
The projected $152 billion total was 12% above the cited FY2020 total of $135.9 billion and $300 million below the then-record $152.3 billion reported for FY2014. The projected $27 billion in sales to China would have exceeded the cited 2012 record of $25.9 billion in U.S. agricultural exports to that country. All of these comparisons come from the 2020 report; they describe the forecast and historical figures available at the time, not final FY2021 totals.
Why China was expected to lead
The 2020 report connected the outlook to rising corn and soybean prices and strong Chinese demand. Higher prices can raise the dollar value of exports even when the physical quantity shipped does not grow at the same rate, so a forecast for export value is not, by itself, a forecast of equivalent growth in volume.
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Analysts also pointed to China’s need for soybeans and grain and its rebuilding of its swine population. Joe Glauber, then identified as an analyst affiliated with the International Food Policy Research Institute, said in 2020 that China had rebuilt its swine population faster than many had predicted. Seth Meyer, then associate director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, questioned whether the buying represented temporary demand or a lasting change in imports. These were contemporaneous assessments, not guarantees about subsequent trade.
How the forecast compared with other markets
The 2020 FY2021 projection ranked China first, Canada second and Mexico third. The amounts below are forecast values reported in November 2020, not confirmed results:
| Destination | Projected U.S. agricultural exports, FY2021 |
|---|---|
| China | $27 billion |
| Canada | $21 billion |
| Mexico | $19.5 billion |
Because the figures are projections for a U.S. fiscal year, they should not be treated as calendar-year totals or as proof of what each market ultimately bought.
What happened to the outlook afterward
USDA forecasts changed in later releases. Farm Credit East reported in May 2021 that USDA then projected $157 billion in U.S. agricultural exports worldwide for 2021 and $31.5 billion in purchases by China. Those later estimates are another forecast vintage, not final realized totals; they should not be substituted for the November 2020 projections or compared as though all were settled outcomes. Farm Credit East’s May 2021 update describes that revised outlook.
The University of Kentucky Department of Agricultural Economics reports that China bought $38 billion in U.S. agricultural products in 2022, then ranked third among U.S. export markets by 2024, behind Canada and Mexico. That later ranking shows why “back as top customer” belongs to the 2020 forecast story rather than a continuing description of China’s position. The department’s outlook provides this later market context.
For another point of comparison, Agri-Pulse reported in November 2024 that USDA forecast $170 billion in U.S. agricultural exports for FY2025 and $23.3 billion in purchases by China. These, too, were forecasts, and the figures do not establish final FY2025 totals. Agri-Pulse’s report gives the forecast and its period.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Recent export value and volume are not the same story
Southern Ag Today, summarizing USDA data in 2026, reported that U.S. agricultural export value in 2025 was 12% below the 2022 record of $196 billion, while aggregate export quantities in 2025 were the third-highest on record. The difference matters: lower value does not necessarily mean that proportionally fewer agricultural goods were shipped, since export value also reflects prices and product mix.
The same analysis reported that exports in the first half of 2026 were up 7% in value and 10% in volume. Those are partial-year changes, not a completed 2026 result. Southern Ag Today’s 2026 analysis discusses these trends.
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What the headline does—and does not—establish
- It describes a November 2020 USDA forecast for FY2021, not a present-day ranking.
- The forecast expected China to lead with $27 billion in purchases, but the cited material does not establish final realized FY2021 totals.
- Later evidence places China first by U.S. agricultural purchase value in 2022 and third by 2024, behind Canada and Mexico.
- Export value and export volume measure different things; a change in dollars should not automatically be read as the same change in physical shipments.
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