A September 2025 KFF poll found that 78% of U.S. adults favored extending the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits, while 22% wanted them to expire. That is a historical poll result, not a current measure of opinion: the temporary enhancements expired at the end of 2025 and, as of KFF’s January 14, 2026 update, Congress had not renewed them.
What the September 2025 poll found
KFF interviewed 1,334 U.S. adults from September 23–29, 2025. Ars Technica reported that 78% favored extending the enhanced credits and 22% favored letting them expire. The full-sample margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points, according to the report; subgroup estimates have more uncertainty, so that margin should not be applied to each political group.
The figures below are reported by Ars Technica from the KFF poll. The original questionnaire and detailed methods are not available here, so these figures should be understood as reported results rather than an independent review of the poll instrument.
| Respondent group | Favored extending the enhancements |
|---|---|
| All U.S. adults | 78% |
| Democrats | 92% |
| Independents | 82% |
| Republicans | 59% |
| MAGA-identifying respondents | 57% |
| People who buy their own insurance | 84% |
About six in ten adults said they had heard little or nothing about the enhanced credits expiring: 30% said they had heard “a little,” and 31% said “nothing at all.” The poll was conducted just before the federal government shutdown that began October 1, 2025.
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Ars Technica’s October 3, 2025 report attributed this contemporaneous observation to KFF President and CEO Drew Altman: “There is a hot debate in Washington about the looming ACA premium hikes, but our poll shows that most people in the marketplaces don’t know about them yet and are in for a shock when they learn about them in November.” The comment referred to the situation and expected enrollment-period news in 2025, not to a current forecast.
What expired—and what remains
The enhanced credits that began in 2021 expired at the end of 2025. KFF’s FAQ, updated January 14, 2026, said Congress had not renewed them. The expiration reduces assistance for many Marketplace enrollees who qualify for credits, and some people may no longer qualify for a credit at all.
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Expiration of the temporary enhancements did not abolish the underlying ACA premium tax credit. Eligible people buying qualifying coverage through a health insurance Marketplace may still qualify for the baseline credit. The enhancements increased assistance for people already eligible and temporarily extended eligibility to some people with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty guidelines. The IRS describes the temporary expansion of eligibility as applying for tax years 2021 through 2025.
For current status and consumer guidance, see KFF’s FAQ on the enhanced premium tax credits and the IRS questions and answers on the premium tax credit.
How to interpret the widely cited premium estimates
Two different measures appeared in 2025 estimates: the insurer’s gross premium before tax credits, and the enrollee’s net payment after credits. They describe different parts of the bill and should not be compared as if they were the same increase.
| Measure | What the 2025 estimate said | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Average annual net premium payment for subsidized Marketplace enrollees | KFF estimated an increase from $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026, a 114% rise, if the enhanced credits expired. | A conditional national average estimate published September 30, 2025, using data available then. It was not an observed 2026 result or a prediction that every enrollee’s payment would double. |
| Median proposed 2026 gross premium increase | KFF found an 18% median proposed increase, compared with 7% proposed the prior year. | Based on initial rate filings from 312 insurers across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., analyzed August 6, 2025. These were proposed rates, not final rates; insurers cited rising service costs and expected expiration of the enhancements among the factors. |
The net-payment estimate and rate-filing analysis were published before the enhancements expired and relied on the information available at those times. Neither figure tells an individual household what its current premium will be. Actual assistance and costs depend on household and plan circumstances.
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Sources: KFF’s September 30, 2025 estimate of the effects on premiums and out-of-pocket costs and KFF’s August 6, 2025 analysis of proposed Marketplace rate increases.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to check your own Marketplace costs
National polling and averages cannot show what a particular household will pay. KFF recommends using its calculator to estimate how changes to credits affect premiums, then checking eligibility and plan prices with HealthCare.gov or the relevant state Marketplace.
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- Use KFF’s ACA subsidy calculator for an estimate based on your circumstances.
- For an individual eligibility determination and available plans, contact HealthCare.gov or your state’s Marketplace.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
