On February 11, 2026, Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange raised its forecast for the 2025/26 soybean harvest to 48 million tons, one million tons above its previous estimate. The exchange pointed to favorable growing conditions in western and northern Argentina. This was a forecast—not a final harvest result—and a later USDA estimate put production higher.
What changed in Rosario’s February forecast?
The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR), commonly called the Rosario exchange, increased its 2025/26 soybean crop estimate by one million tons to 48 million tons. Reuters reported the revision on February 11, 2026; the figure should be understood as the exchange’s forecast at that time, not a reported final crop total. Reuters’ report
Why did the exchange raise the estimate?
Rosario cited favorable growing conditions in western and northern Argentina. The crop was still at a critical stage for yield development, however, and the exchange said rainfall over the next 10 to 15 days would matter for prospects for both soybeans and corn. It held its corn harvest projection at 62 million tons. Reuters’ report
The weather picture was not uniform across the country. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service office in Buenos Aires maintained its own 48-million-metric-ton forecast for Argentina’s 2025/26 crop, describing timely February rains after January dryness and noting differences between first- and second-crop conditions. USDA FAS Buenos Aires report
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How did the later USDA estimate compare?
In its June 15, 2026 outlook, USDA’s Economic Research Service estimated Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean production at 50 million metric tons, a separate estimate two million metric tons above its previous figure. USDA ERS attributed its upward revision to higher yields as harvest neared completion. That number belongs to USDA ERS, not to the Rosario exchange. USDA ERS Oil Crops Yearbook
| Organization and date | 2025/26 soybean figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Rosario exchange, reported by Reuters on February 11, 2026 | 48 million tons, up one million from its previous estimate | The exchange’s February forecast |
| USDA FAS Buenos Aires, 2026 | 48 million metric tons | FAS’s own maintained forecast |
| USDA ERS, June 15, 2026 | 50 million metric tons, revised up by two million | ERS’s later estimate as harvest neared completion |
The figures are close, but they were issued by different organizations at different times and are not one continuous Rosario forecast series. “Tons” and “metric tons” are retained as each source described its estimate.
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Does 48 million tons remain Rosario’s latest estimate?
The February figure cannot be treated as current Rosario guidance. A Rosario Board of Trade page dated October 2, 2026 was available, but its soybean supply-and-demand data block could not be read in the page view reviewed; it does not establish a newer Rosario production estimate. Rosario Board of Trade commodity markets
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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